Chapter 5. CitiesEarly warning systems, modelling and monitoring How can cities prepare for the future and monitor climate threats? From community-based assessments to national multi-hazard warning systems, innovative solutions are giving citizens access to the right information when they need it most.
How can cities prepare for the future and monitor climate threats? From community-based assessments to national multi-hazard warning systems, innovative solutions are giving citizens access to the right information when they need it most.
Innovation examples
Multi-hazard early warning systems in Shanghai
Natural disasters often have a domino effect. Having an integrated early warning system can prepare cities and communities for multiple hazards,… Read more
Natural disasters often have a domino effect. Having an integrated early warning system can prepare cities and communities for multiple hazards, such as storm surges and typhoon-triggered floods. One of the first examples of multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) was set up in Shanghai, a megacity of over 23 million people. Through a single system, alerts are provided on 14 categories of weather condition. They include climate-related disasters such as extreme heat, floods, tropical storms and typhoons.[1] The system was set up to provide warnings based on color-coded warning signals with three to four levels – red, orange, yellow or blue – depending on severity. Integrated warning systems place extra demand on coordination and joint response mechanisms between agencies, cities and regions, and need to actively involve at-risk communities. They also require robust technologies to support accurate hazard descriptions and communicate warnings efficiently. On a technical level, the Shanghai MHEWS combines various platforms for monitoring, detecting and forecasting multiple hazards. These are integrated with mechanisms for dissemination of alerts via text messages, TV, radio, web, public electronic screens and billboards, and many other media.[2] In 2009, the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) was registered at the United Nations with the aim of strengthening National Meteorological and Hydrological services in countries in Asia and Africa. On a global level, the International Network of Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems provides resources such as a checklist to help countries set up key elements of an integrated warning system.
Multi-country datasets for early warning systems in Bangladesh
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to cyclones and storms. The country witnesses on average five to… Read more
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to cyclones and storms. The country witnesses on average five to six cyclones a year along the coast. In addition, it is one of the most flood-prone countries, with water often overflowing from three large river systems – the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna. Bangladesh has taken several steps toward improving its early warning systems. Rather than opting for more advanced technological systems, the goal has been to increase response times so as to provide warnings at least 12–24 hours in advance. This has meant simplifying modelling in some cases, such as in riverine discharge modelling. Other models such as the one for storm surge were upgraded to forecast total water level estimates by incorporating wave and tidal inputs. A key contribution to the success of the system been made by data and technologies provided through a number of collaborations, including with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Bangladesh Navy (digital elevation models), and through the Delft Flood Early Warning System (FEWS). Many factors determine the number of fatalities caused by an extreme weather event. It is therefore difficult to measure the direct impact of early warning systems. However, having a fairly good idea of what is coming and when will enable preparedness and increase resilience.
During a 2014 flood in Jakarta, Indonesia, a twitter application (PetaJakarta) [1] engaged communities in managing an effective flood response. Within 24 hours of onset, 150,000 tweets were collected to dynamically map where the flooding was across the city.[2] Traditionally, communities have been engaged in collecting information and data through participatory methods such as Participatory Vulnerability and Capacity Assessments (PVCAs). These often result in maps of hazards, flood extent, exposure and risk. Mobile phone and applications use is now enabling faster and broader ways to collect data in real-time through community engagement. Information can also be digitized to better merge with other types of information and reach key stakeholders, for example through shared open databases such as OpenStreetMap (OSM). In least developed countries, where human and technological capacity for disaster risk monitoring may be low, mobile technologies can help overcome major obstacles in flood response and recovery. Another example is the 2010 Haiti Earthquake where humanitarian responders had little or no access to detailed maps. Voluntary contributors rapidly began mapping road networks using satellite images and OpenStreetMap. The organization Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team has now engaged nearly 400,000 community mappers to map nearly three million roads and over 130 million buildings.
Campbell Scientific provides in situ weather monitoring with digital sensors and using solar panels to ensure power supply. Their Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) and meteorological instruments measure all common parameters (i.e., temperature, wind speed and direction, solar radiation and precipitation). They are suitable for monitoring conditions in urban areas and during extreme weather events. The weather stations are also suitable for weather condition monitoring over an extended period of time without intervention. A cloud-based software allows data to be visualized in real-time. This lends itself well to research and for educational purposes where weather data displayed on public screens can raise awareness. The company has worked with the University of Birmingham to upgrade 26 weather stations supplying urban climate data across multiple city locations. The technology is also used by the Belgian city of Antwerp to monitor the urban heat island effect.[1]
Telegrafia has implemented warning systems in over 80 countries. Its product portfolio consists of various forms of electronic siren for industrial use or public mass warnings. Sirens can be used as stand-alone devices or part of networks, either stationary or mobile (e.g., for installation on cars). The company also offers communication infrastructure, monitoring stations and sensors. Their city early warning system warns against floods, fires or other natural disasters and consists of a network of up several hundred sirens. A main control center (or district control center in larger cities) monitors and controls sirens and communication channels, and supports automated first responder notifications. The company’s own software applications are available for monitoring, control of electronic warning systems and for managing emergency rescue processes.
Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) are a system of emergency messages used in the United States. These are sent directly to people’s phones by authorized government authorities. The messages typically consist of less than 90 characters and can be used to send warnings about emergencies such as extreme tornados and severe flash floods. When an area is about to be hit by a storm, an alert is issued and picked up by cell towers in the affected area. They then transfer the alert to the phones connected to that cell tower. By operating through only those cell towers in the affected area, cell networks are not overloaded by millions of text messages and outages avoided.
Weather and climate messages for remote communities
“Chatty beetles” are two-way text messaging devices suitable for rough terrains and remote communities. Communities like those on Pacific islands… Read more
“Chatty beetles” are two-way text messaging devices suitable for rough terrains and remote communities. Communities like those on Pacific islands where over 100 chatty beetles have been deployed. The devices are part of a system that uses a constellation of private communication satellites provided by the company Iridium. It is an important tool for disseminating early warning signals and messages back out to distant communities without need of internet access. The devices instead receive and send text alerts via email and mobile phones using radio and the internet (RANET).
HIWAT are a set of web-based tool that provides guidance on hazard and weather forecasts to forecasters and decision-makers. The tools are tailored for the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region and further customized for Bangladesh and Nepal at the local level. These tools use a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model and the global precipitation measurement (GPM) constellation of satellites. The toolkit provides projections of weather events such as lightning strikes, high-impact winds, extreme rainfall and hail.
Originally developed for the military, the Raytheon Coyote is a small unmanned aircraft system (UAS) that can track and model hurricanes. Once… Read more
Originally developed for the military, the Raytheon Coyote is a small unmanned aircraft system (UAS) that can track and model hurricanes. Once launched from an aircraft, the drone can gather data from up to 50 miles away. It can fly at altitudes too low or dangerous for manned aircraft and provide forecasters with real-time data on atmospheric air pressure, temperature, moisture, wind speed and direction, as well as surface temperature.[2] Together with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the system was deployed to collect data during Hurricane Edouard in 2014 and Hurricane Maria in 2017.
Google’s Flood Forecasting team complements efforts by governments to provide early warning systems to populations living in flood-risk areas.… Read more
Google’s Flood Forecasting team complements efforts by governments to provide early warning systems to populations living in flood-risk areas. Their modelling systems for flood prediction collect thousands of satellite images to build digital models of the terrain and simulate thousands of possible scenarios of how the rivers could behave. Simulations and high-quality elevation maps are cross-referenced with measurements sent from by government. Alerts can then be sent to individuals via different channels, with a claimed 90 percent accuracy. So far, Google has sent out over 100 million Android notifications in India and Bangladesh to people in flood-risk areas.[1]
Contracting type: Free
Technology level: High
Country of origin: United States
Availability: India, Bangladesh (plans for expansion in South Asia and South America)
Ericsson and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) have developed a method for reporting on precipitation using telephone… Read more
Ericsson and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) have developed a method for reporting on precipitation using telephone network microwave data. The “Ericsson Weather Data” initiative builds on the knowledge that microwaves are sensitive to raindrops, and offer higher temporal and spatial resolution compared to existing radar solutions. As rain falls across the telephone network, real-time rainfall maps can be made by analyzing microwave signal loss patterns. This solution may be of particular interest to countries that lack an extensive weather-monitoring network but do have a microwave-based telephone network. It has been tested in Sweden, Germany and Rwanda, and aims to provide a high degree of early warning system foresight without the need for weather stations.[3] Recent research on such microwave backhaul technologies from communication networks has suggested great potential for precipitation and flood monitoring in urban areas.[4]
Ordinary citizens and volunteers on the ground may become important actors in collecting and analyzing climate and disaster data around the world. Through a process known as ‘“Groundtruthing” satellite data is verified on the ground. This is done using crowdsourced “pin drops” and pictures sent by people whose mobile devices have cameras. Groundtruthing allows authorities to tap into localized data, study disasters, build automated land-use classification algorithms and better understand how people experiences these in real-time. One example is the social media company Snapchat’s map function called Snap Map. The map is part of a social media app with millions of followers used for sharing short temporary video clips of people’s lives, pinned to a certain geographical spot. Although the app was not developed for disaster data reporting, its millions of users may give it a far wider reach than the fit-for-purpose apps. The use of social media has the potential to offer insights into how hurricanes, storms and floods unfold so as to guide first responders to critical intervention points.
FloodCitiSense has developed an early warning system app for use by citizens and authorities in response to urban rainfall flooding. To date, the… Read more
FloodCitiSense has developed an early warning system app for use by citizens and authorities in response to urban rainfall flooding. To date, the tool has been piloted in European cities Brussels, Rotterdam and Birmingham. Citizens observations are a key component in responding to the need for dispersed rainfall data. Citizens are engaged to place low-cost rainfall sensors at their homes. The data obtained is entered into an app where citizens can make reports of rainfall intensity in real-time.
In great part due to improved early warning systems, deaths related to climate disasters have decreased almost threefold since the 1970s. Yet, more than 90 percent of deaths from disasters such as droughts, storms, floods and extreme temperature… Read more
Knowledge saves lives
In great part due to improved early warning systems, deaths related to climate disasters have decreased almost threefold since the 1970s. Yet, more than 90 percent of deaths from disasters such as droughts, storms, floods and extreme temperature have occurred in developing countries[50] – especially in Asia.[51] In India, thousands of people measure river water levels across the country every hour using simple stream gauges.[52] But this does not tell them exactly when and where disaster will strike. And response times are not always quick enough. Effective early warning systems require knowledge about risks and the technologies for monitoring and communicating warnings. But they are equally reliant on the strong readiness, response capacity and engagement of communities.[53] Read less
Modelling and monitoring city-level impacts
Climate model projections on the regional or local scale are often highly uncertain. However, the field of regional climate modelling has advanced steadily since the late 1980s, achieving more accurate, localized projections. Statistical… Read more
Modelling and monitoring city-level impacts
Climate model projections on the regional or local scale are often highly uncertain. However, the field of regional climate modelling has advanced steadily since the late 1980s, achieving more accurate, localized projections. Statistical down-scaling and modelling techniques such as Stepwise Cluster Analysis (SCA) can help obtain higher-resolution and small-scale climate information. Meanwhile, vulnerability mapping, inundation mapping and flood modelling have become common practice and an integral part of flood risk management. For real-time information on rising water levels or extreme weather events, cities rely on technologies as diverse as sensors, tide gauges and satellites. With increased connectedness of all sorts of units, sensors not originally intended for rainfall and weather data can be leveraged to vastly increase the number and distribution of data collection spots, thus providing a data-foundation for modelling and early warning systems.[54] But many cities lack meteorological measurements inside the urban environment. In general, there are severe gaps in weather and hydrological observation networks in Africa, in the Pacific and Caribbean island states, and in some parts of Latin America.[55] Local networks for climate information can help respond to some of these needs, by engaging schools and community centers in the collection of basic information like temperature profiles, relative humidity, and wind speed and direction. Read less
From remote sensing to knocking on doors
Global positioning systems (GPS), remote sensing (RS) technologies and geographic information systems (GIS) are at the heart of many early warning systems and response actions. They enable real-time monitoring and analysis of large volumes of… Read more
From remote sensing to knocking on doors
Global positioning systems (GPS), remote sensing (RS) technologies and geographic information systems (GIS) are at the heart of many early warning systems and response actions. They enable real-time monitoring and analysis of large volumes of spatial data. They can therefore support action in preparation and response to climate hazards. Once a disaster hits, these same technologies are needed again for search and rescue operations, and for evaluating damage and reconstruction needs. For example, GIS can be used to identify the shortest and easiest routes between shelter centers and victims, while avoiding dangerous areas. But early warning systems need not be complex. The United Nations has pledged full coverage to the entire global population within the next five years.[56] But approximately one-third of people have no access to early warning systems.[57] Irrespective of whether a system is set up on a national, regional or local level, it must be inclusive and transcend technology, language and literacy barriers. This could mean communicating through mobile devices or sirens, using pictures or pictograms as well as words, or complementing technology-based warning signals by going door to door in a community. It could also mean engaging communities not only as receivers of warnings, but also as mobilizers. For example in Indonesia, religious institutions have been identified as actors who would strengthen the chain of local early warnings in coastal cities.[58] In other cases, the power of social media has been harnessed to map out disasters in real-time, showcasing the benefits of a decentralized ownership and provision of data. Read less
Now replaced by PetaBencana.id, an expanded disaster mapping service currently deployed for Jabodetabek (greater Jakarta), Surabaya and Bandung.
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