Technological developments and trends

Emissions from major areas of agriculture

Human-created carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions come from two main sources – fossil fuels and land use change and management. While fossil fuel is the dominant source, generating around 10 gigatons CO₂eq/yr, land use and land use change are estimated to account for between 1 and 2 GtCO₂eq/yr or around 11 percent of annual global CO₂ emissions.^[1] This figure includes loss of biomass and soil carbon, peat drainage and burning, etc. However, when the global warming effect of other greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane emitted by agricultural practices, is taken into account this sector’s contribution to annual global GHG emissions doubles to 22 percent, although this estimate should be treated with caution due to the complex nature of the sector.^[2]

Global food consumption alone risks adding close to 1 degree Celsius to the planet’s temperature by 2100

A recent study indicates that global food consumption alone risks adding close to 1 degree Celsius to the planet’s temperature by 2100, with three-quarters of this increase attributable to high methane emission sources, such as livestock. It also indicates that up to 55 percent of this warming effect can be avoided through better farming practices, changes in
people’s dietary habits and reduced food waste.^[3]

Reducing emissions from agriculture is vital for achieving the goals of the 2015 United Nations (UN) Paris Agreement

One reason why agriculture is considered responsible for such a large contribution to global GHG emissions relates to the high proportion of methane emitted from agricultural activities. Methane has a stronger atmospheric warming effect than CO₂ but it also breaks down much faster with a half-life of around 12 years compared to 120 years for CO₂. This means that the atmospheric heating effect of methane is around 84 times higher than CO₂ during the first 20 years after its release, and around 28 times higher over a 100-year period. Agriculture is also a major emitter of nitrous oxide (N₂O), another potent greenhouse gas, but in smaller quantities with a correspondingly lower contribution to global warming than methane and CO2. Therefore, reducing emissions from agriculture is vital for achieving the goals of the 2015 United Nations (UN) Paris Agreement.

In the words of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): “Agriculture provides the second largest share of the mitigation potential, with 4.1 (1.7–6.7) GtCO₂eq/yr from cropland and grassland soil carbon management, agroforestry, use of biochar, improved rice cultivation, and livestock and nutrient management.”^[4] Add to this that agriculture occupies around five billion hectares of land or 38 percent of the global land surface^[5] and is responsible for 70 percent of global freshwater withdrawals,^[6] making its environmental footprint enormous. So too is its vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (see WIPO’s Green Technology Book: Solutions for Climate Change Adaptation). Figure 3.1 illustrates the composition of the sector’s various emissions. Enteric fermentation is methane emitted from the digestive process of ruminants.

Agriculture is a major GHG emitter and has an enormous environmental footprint but it is also a sector with thriving innovation and new solutions that are being embraced by farmers, as this chapter will show. Farming is hard labor and farmers have always been dependent on tools that help them grow more with less risk. Clearly, agriculture is also extremely diverse and depends on many local factors, not least climate and soils. Therefore, the solutions are also highly diverse.

This chapter focuses on solutions for reducing emissions from agriculture, highlighting specific sectors that represent some of the main GHG emission sources, namely livestock, soils, land use and forestry, and rice cultivation. The role of data and advanced technology in agriculture more generally is also examined. Other sectors and large emission sources that could have been considered include energy use in agriculture, food waste or agricultural waste management, but to examine all these is beyond the scope of a single publication.

Farm animals

Technological trends relating to livestock are following several different paths. In terms of reducing methane emissions from the digestive processes of cattle, several feed supplements already on the market promise significant reductions. This field is seeing rapid developments and some companies are even marketing low-carbon meat produced by cattle treated with such supplements. Another approach is to increase the general productivity of livestock rearing and hereby reduce emissions per product produced. This approach encompasses a broad swath of technologies which have been refined over decades. Currently, much investment and media attention are focused on alternative meat products. Plant-based alternatives are the most widely developed and popular and also the easiest to bring to the market. Several brands are already available in many countries and competition is fierce. A more technically challenging alternative is cultured meat in various forms. Some companies are ready to scale up their production and products have already been approved on two major markets. However, the technical and economic feasibility, as well as the benefits for the climate, are still to be confirmed. At this stage, it appears most likely that the biggest emission reduction impact will come from the less visible meat replacements, such as the protein sources used in mass-produced food items by large food-industry players. The substitution of new plant-based products with a proven much lower carbon footprint could make a real difference, even given a short time horizon. However, the simplest solution to reducing GHG emissions from livestock is simply to eat less meat, especially beef. Changing meat consumption to favor, for example, pigs, poultry, rabbits and fish, whose digestive systems release significantly less methane, may also help.

The simplest solution to reducing GHG emissions from livestock is simply to eat less meat, especially beef

Improving range management and avoiding land conversion both have major potential to reduce livestock emissions. Several solutions for optimization of grazing patterns and crops are already on the market. Deforestation results in substantial emissions and livestock rearing is often the main driver. Better use of land that is already being cultivated will have major climate change benefits. This, again, underlines the importance of more efficient use of resources and land in agricultural systems. There is a plethora of technologies that can assist in achieving this goal, ranging from early warning systems to optimized use of inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, etc.) and water to advanced monitoring of soil and crop parameters. Effective policy and legal restrictions will be necessary to preserve the world’s forests. The rapid developments in satellite and drone-based imaging and sensors – which produce vast amounts of data that is then made accessible on mobile platforms and other software systems – can provide the insight needed to implement such restrictions and monitor their effectiveness. The forests that remain, as well as those that are being restored, will need to be protected against disturbance, not least forest fires – another area that is receiving a lot of attention and where innovation is thriving.

Soils – the basis for everything

Soils play a major role in climate change due to the vast amount of carbon they already store in relatively stable form. Technologies that support regenerative agriculture are numerous and some, such as mechanical seed drills that enable minimum and no-till practices, have been around for decades. Most no-till agriculture still relies on utilization of pesticides, but new technologies such as autonomous and lightweight or even flying machines offer alternative mechanical weeding and precision spraying. New natural and organic pesticides and fertilizers may also help improve soil health and hence store soil carbon. Adding microbes and other additives to soil is shown to speed up that process and carbon can be added directly, for example in the form of biochar. Emphasis is currently also being placed on improved crop rotation and the use of nitrogen-fixating cover crops capable of extracting nitrogen from air in new combinations to improve soil carbon.

Soils of particular concern for climate change due to high methane emissions are waterlogged rice fields

One use of soils of particular concern for climate change due to high methane emissions are waterlogged rice fields (paddies), especially in Asia. Research is underway to better monitor and mitigate this source of GHG emissions but has not yet yielded easily implementable solutions. Temporarily draining paddies could have a major beneficial impact but is not feasible in all systems due to their intricate water management and sharing arrangements. Growing rice as a dry crop would be an efficient means of reducing methane emissions, but flooded rice still represents more than 75 percent of global rice production^[7] and it may be necessary to develop new rice varieties to enable expansion of dry rice cultivation. Producing more with less, including reducing food loss and waste, therefore currently appears to be the most feasible mitigation action. However, the mitigation potential of this approach may be modest as most rice cultivation systems are already very intensive.

Data and IT-based technologies – the next big thing in agriculture?

This chapter considers advanced agricultural technologies, including technology sectors such as precision farming, which itself encompasses a vast range of technologies. This is an area of agricultural technology where innovation is happening at a fast pace.

[Digital] tools are becoming more effective and more capable, but their adoption is not taking place in a revolutionary way

So, is the world on the brink of a new agricultural revolution which will drastically transform the planet’s agricultural systems? The answer is probably not. Agriculture in many countries is already highly advanced and intensive. New technologies can offer novel solutions to stubborn problems as well as further increases in resource and labor efficiency. Digital tools are becoming more effective and more capable, but their adoption is not taking place in a revolutionary way. Rather, farmers (who are generally risk averse) will invest in new tools when they can see a clear, primarily economic, advantage. They cannot afford to risk taking the plunge into a whole new setup. For example, the adoption of precision farming technologies is likely to start with step-wise improvements, such as precision global positioning system (GPS) guided machines rather than autonomous ones and adjustable spraying nozzles that can help reduce the use of inputs and other resources. To conquer the market, the advantages of using sensors on farm machines and in the fields, coupled with satellite and, to a lesser extent, drone images, still remain to be proved. Although market predictions for precision agriculture technologies are glowing, sales trends are positive and technology patents are rapidly increasing, their use is still far from mainstream.

Some advanced technologies, such as spraying drones and weeding robots, do seem to offer important potential advantages, but other agriculture tools are likely to be accepted by farmers only when they see a clear, and specifically economic, advantage coupled with limited risk. Rental or service packages for such new technologies may be required to persuade farmers, offering the potential to save the significant up-front costs of investments in new but traditional farm machinery. A shift toward more sustainable agriculture is already taking place in many countries. Organic farming is widespread, fueled by consumer demand and correspondingly higher product prices. The consumer demand mechanism has already proven powerful and, if coupled with legislation and policy-induced restrictions as well as financial support for climate change friendly practices, indicates that rapid and important changes can indeed be made. As usual, technology has an important enabling role to play. However, as with most things, much depends on the local context, both between countries and between regions within countries. The local context is highly diverse and so also is the appetite and the capability to embark on new solutions.
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Patents and finance

The agricultural sector is experiencing high levels of innovation, expressed in terms of patents. Patent filings in agricultural engineering have increased by around 10 percent per year between 2000 and 2017, showing a sixfold increase during this period (see figure 3.2).^[8] With patent filings for all technologies growing by 400 percent between 2001 and 2020,^[9] technological innovation levels in the agricultural sector are well above the average, as evidenced by the number of agricultural patent filings.

Figure 3.2 Number of agricultural engineering patent filings, 2000 to 2017

Source: Sozzi et al., 2018.

Agricultural inputs such as pesticides and herbicides are among the fields showing most activity, with 40,000 patents granted within the last 10 years. As in many other technology areas, patenting in agriculture is concentrated geographically, with China leading in this case, followed by the United States, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, Japan and Brazil.^[10]

Innovation in agricultural drones and robots

Drones are often promoted as a new technology that offers many advantages for farmers, not least in relation to labor cost savings and reduced use of expensive chemicals. Patenting activities seem to confirm strong interest in the field. Research conducted in 2023 into patents in relation to agricultural drones found 23,501 relevant patents, dominated by patents in communication technology, sensing devices, sprayer technologies and power systems. Although patenting in this area only started within the last decade, for sprayer drones, for example, there are now around 600 patents annually, up from just a handful in 2013.^[11]

A study from 2019 on the patenting of robot technology for agriculture identified the following major fields in patent filing, in order of volume:^[12]

1. robotic arms (for handling, harvesting, etc.)
2. means of travel and specialized vehicles
3. mechatronics applied to fishing or fish farming
4. animal husbandry and analysis
5. image capture
6. cutting tools
7. radio frequency identification (RFID) tags applied to agriculture
8. plant growing systems
9. robotic supply of food
10. automated irrigation.

The study also revealed that China and the United States are the major filing countries.

Innovation in livestock and soil carbon

Methane emissions from cattle are a major climate change concern and patent analyses confirm that intensive innovation is being invested in finding solutions. Feed additives are a technology that is showing promising potential for reducing methane emissions and patent analyses indicate exponential growth in filings since the early 2000s. Plant-based additives have seen the strongest growth but a large variety of active compounds in methane-reducing feed additives have also been patented. European Union (EU) countries are taking the lead with private actors dominating the field.^[13] Seaweed as a feed additive is an area of innovation with particular potential and a study identified 1,640 patents up to 2020, with almost half originating in the United States.^[14]

One of the major challenges involved in addressing the issue of soil carbon in climate change is developing reliable and affordable methods for measuring soil carbon

One of the major challenges involved in addressing the issue of soil carbon in climate change is developing reliable and affordable methods for measuring soil carbon. Since at least 2015, this has been a highly active field of innovation, which seemed to peak in 2019 and then fell away somewhat, at least in terms of analyzing the 425 patent families that can be identified in this field. China is strongly dominant in patent filing in this field, with its universities predominating as primary actors.^[15]

Innovation in environmental Earth observation

Much of the data required for precision farming to be effective is generated by remote sensing platforms, typically satellites but also drones. Satellites offer consistent multispectral image products with short revisit times but depend on cloud-free conditions. Multispectral images can be used for a broad suite of detailed analyses of vegetation and forest conditions and crop development during the growing season. The market for satellite images has developed rapidly over the past couple of decades with the combination of national public satellites and a highly active private sector resulting in a growth rate of around 10 percent per year.^[16] After communication satellites, Earth observation (EO) satellites are the largest group of satellites with 1,192 units in orbit at the end of 2022. In 2022, 140 EO satellites were launched, corresponding to growth of 13 percent. The EO satellites are controlled by 237 organizations with around half owned by the 10 biggest operators. Almost half of the EO satellites in orbit have commercial uses and this is also where growth in satellite launches is strongest with close to 20 percent in 2022.^[17]

The market for satellite images has developed rapidly over the past couple of decades with the combination of national public satellites and a highly active private sector 

These strong trends are also reflected in patent filings. Filings for green applications of satellite-based sensing data increased by a massive 1,800 percent between 2001 and 2020. This includes a broad range of environmental applications such as climate change mitigation, weather prediction, pollution detection and environmental monitoring. A major part of these filings related to signal processing, but development and miniaturization of instruments and platforms, artificial intelligence (AI) processing and sensor development are also highly active fields. China is dominating the patent filings in this area with 71 percent in 2021, although these are mainly domestic filings. In terms of international filings, the United States dominated with a 43 percent share while the EU  accounted for 25 percent of international filings.^[18] The analysis also shows that these patents are filed primarily within the technical fields of crop productivity, land use, rivers and coastal zones, clouds and extreme events. These represent commercially important activities and the findings reflect the strong private sector engagement that was also observed in the data on satellite launches.

Financing the green transition in agriculture

Finance allocated to various sectors within agriculture and land use indicates the importance that policymakers and private funders attribute to the sector. The agriculture sector is particularly complex due to the huge number of widely different activities it encompasses, the various ways these are implemented and the local contexts. This also makes deployment of financial support diverse and sometimes complex. The following section details some overall pointers and gives examples of the type of investments that are happening in various agriculture subsectors.

On average in 2019 and 2020, climate finance for agriculture, forestry and related sectors received only 2.5 percent of total climate finance. This highlights its underfunding compared to sectors such as renewable energy (51 percent) and low-carbon transport (26 percent).^[19] While crop and livestock farming contributes almost 14 percent of global GHG emissions, it received only 0.35 percent (USD 2 billion) of total climate finance in 2019/20.^[20]

The majority of agriculture climate finance originates from public sources, as private sector contributions are constrained by perceived risks prompting the need for scalable blended finance approaches.^[21] Carbon accounting is particularly difficult for agricultural projects due to measurement uncertainties and therefore agricultural offsetting projects are rare, accounting for just 1 percent of all carbon credits issued.^[22]

The East Asia and Pacific regions lead in terms of agricultural climate finance receipts, trailed by sub-Saharan Africa where agriculture constitutes 23 percent of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP).^[23] Yet, despite the fact that 95 percent of the world’s farms are operated by small-scale farmers, only 40 percent of total committed funds cater to small-scale farming.^[24]

Presently, agricultural climate finance falls short of Paris Agreement targets, requiring a 26-fold increase in funding (USD 423 billion annually by 2030) in contrast to the current average funding USD 16.3 billion annually.^[25]

Alternative foods

During 2019/20, approximately USD 1.5 billion of company-level investments were dedicated to agrifood tech startups, primarily focusing on GHG mitigation. The food and diet sector received the largest share (68 percent), channeling support primarily toward startups involved in cultured meat, novel ingredients and plant-based proteins. The consistent year-on-year growth in venture capital investments, alongside the rise of these startups in smaller markets, reflects the escalating global demand for plant-based and alternative diets.^[26]

Both developed and, increasingly, developing markets are witnessing heightened consumer awareness and interest in alternative proteins. This trend is predominantly attributed to concerns regarding the environment, health and animal welfare,^[27] but as this is a novel sector, producers must find ways to reduce costs for consumers.^[28] Investment in alternative proteins reached over USD 5 billion in 2021, fueled by an anticipated 11 percent share of protein consumption by 2035, potentially reducing emissions equivalent to global aviation.^[29]

Alternative foods are currently excluded from carbon markets due to difficulties in developing reliable carbon accounting methods for these products. Policy changes, along with novel methodologies for carbon accounting, are recommended to align the alternative protein and fat industries with environmental goals and support sustainable consumption patterns.

Precision farming

Public funding for precision farming has been supported by major policy initiatives. Under the European Green Deal and Farm to Fork Strategy, funding comes through the Common Agricultural Policy  eco-schemes.^[30] In the United States, the Precision Agriculture Loan Act 2023 aims to unlock financing for precision agriculture technologies, offering loans for between three and 12 years of up to USD 500,000 at interest rates of less than 2 percent.^[31]

The precision farming market is predicted to grow from USD 9.7 billion in 2023 to USD 21.9 billion by 2031. North America, Europe and the Asia Pacific region will see major growth, driven by GHG reduction goals, internet of things (IoT) integration and governmental support.^[32]

However, in 2022 investors displayed a shift in preference compared to the previous year, with a notable decrease of 23 percent in investment in emerging agricultural technologies, a sector that held the top spot in 2020. Instead, they directed their investments toward hyper-local vertical farming. For example Infarm, a German vertical farming enterprise, secured a substantial 58 percent share of the total European investment capital allocated to the emerging agricultural technologies category in 2021.^[33]

Sustainable rice farming

As discussed later in this chapter, reducing methane emissions from rice farming is technically challenging but nevertheless funding is finding its way toward this important goal.

This year, the World Bank approved a loan of USD 255 million for an initiative that aims to mitigate methane emissions from rice production in Hunan province, China’s largest rice-producing region. Over a five-year period, financing for the program is set to reach USD 1.24 billion, with the Chinese Government contributing USD 988 million.^[34]

The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has launched an initiative to reduce methane emissions from small-scale farming in developing countries. The new program will receive USD 3 million in support from the Global Methane Hub and USD 1 million from the US State Department.^[35]

Although the system of alternate wetting and drying (AWD) is recognized as an efficient practice for reducing methane emissions, the resulting emissions reduction is particularly difficult to measure and AWD projects have so far been excluded from carbon credits, effectively cutting off a potentially enabling source of funding.^[36]

Regenerative agriculture

Efforts to restore soil carbon are complex and because measuring the effects of initiatives can be challenging, robust methods for verifying climate gains need to be developed. Nevertheless, the regenerative agriculture market is projected to increase from USD 975 million in 2022 to approximately USD 4.3 billion by 2032^[37] with climate financing initiatives from both private and public bodies driving this trajectory.

As an example, PepsiCo introduced a USD 1.25 billion 10-year Green Bond initiative to support regenerative agriculture ^[38] and Danone North America, in collaboration with the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, has raised USD 3 million of US Department of Agriculture (USDA) funding, with the aim of expanding their soil health program in tandem with farmers.^[39]

EU-funded projects focus on carbon sequestration using crop diversification and organic fertilization through grants from the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development.^[40] Furthermore, the USDA has allocated over USD 3.1 billion across 141 projects via the Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities plan, with a specific emphasis on soil carbon measurement and monitoring.^[41]
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