Transportation and its modalities
Transportation refers to the movement of people and goods from one location to another.
Transportation plays an integral role in shaping the global economy and society, by enabling the efficient movement of goods, services and people across regions.
The infrastructure that underpins transportation, including roads, railways, airports and seaports, is foundational to achieving these outcomes. Quality transportation networks are instrumental in reducing travel and shipping times, decreasing the costs associated with mobility and improving overall accessibility to markets and resources. The development of such infrastructure can spur regional economic growth by attracting businesses that value logistical efficiency and access to broader markets. This not only serves to transform underdeveloped areas into economic hubs, but also generates employment opportunities and stimulates the growth of related sectors.
Transportation and mobility
Transportation refers to the systems, modes and infrastructures that facilitate the movement of people, goods and services from one location to another. It encompasses various means of transport, including road, rail, air and waterways, and involves the use of vehicles, networks and facilities designed to support these activities. Transportation is a critical component of the economy and society, enabling the distribution of products, access to markets and the connectivity of communities.
In contrast, mobility is a broader concept that extends beyond the simple act of transportation. It encompasses the ability and freedom of people to move around within a space, reflecting the ease with which individuals can access different locations and opportunities. Mobility includes not only physical movement facilitated by transportation systems, but also those socioeconomic factors that influence an individual's ability to travel, such as having affordable, accessible, and inclusive transport options.
While both transportation and mobility are crucial for the functioning of modern societies, within the context of this report our focus will be primarily on the transportation aspect. We aim to delve into transportation modalities that enable movement. By concentrating on transportation, the report seeks to highlight the importance of developing robust, efficient and sustainable transportation systems as a foundation for fostering economic growth, enhancing global connectivity, and ensuring equitable access to opportunities.
Modes of transportation
Transportation is a multifaceted sector characterized by various modalities catering to different needs, distances and contexts, making transportation a complex and dynamic component of the global economy and society. In this report, we focus on defining the following four principal transportation modalities, adapted from Rodrigue (see also Figure 2.1).
Land transport
This modality encompasses the movement of people and goods across the Earth's surface. It utilizes vehicles such as cars, bicycles, trains, buses and trucks, which travel along networks of roads, railways and trails. Land transport is integral to everyday life, facilitating commuting, local trade and long-distance haulage. It is characterized by its accessibility and versatility, offering a variety of options to meet different needs and preferences.
Sea transport
Sea transport involves the shipment of goods and passengers across bodies of water, utilizing vessels such as cargo ships, tankers and ferries on maritime routes plus ports to connect different parts of the world. Sea transport is known for its capacity to move large volumes of goods cost-effectively over long distances, making it a backbone of global trade networks.
Air transport
Air transport is the conveyance of people and cargo through the sky, connecting distant points via airports. This modality utilizes airplanes, helicopters, drones and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) aircraft for travel and goods shipment. Air transport is distinguished by its speed, making it one of the fastest modes of long- distance travel and an essential service for time-sensitive shipments and global connectivity.
Space transport
Although not so widely used for commercial purposes as the other modalities, Space transport is rapidly evolving and holds significant potential for the future. It refers to the methods and systems used to send spacecraft and satellites into the higher atmosphere, stratosphere onto outer space. This modality is primarily focused on exploration, communication and satellite deployment, but is also being explored for cargo delivery and human travel beyond Earth's atmosphere.
The transportation sector, with its various modalities, confronts a host of challenges that extend beyond environmental sustainability to encompass the rapidly evolving landscape of digitalization and technological innovation. While issues like congestion, pollution and greenhouse gas emissions remain significant, the sector also grapples with integrating cutting-edge digital technologies.
To better understand these shifts, we need to explore the megatrends affecting the transportation sector and its modalities in greater detail.
Megatrends within the transportation sector
Imagine a world in 2050 in which autonomous vehicles drive silently through smart cities, drawing power from the road below. Imagine drones delivering packages to your doorstep within minutes of placing an order. And imagine a more distant future where hyperloop trains connect distant cities in a matter of minutes or hypersonic flight allows you to travel from London to Sydney in under two hours. Transportation in this future world is not only faster and more efficient than now, but also cleaner and more sustainable. This vision of the future, while ambitious, is increasingly within reach owing to rapid advancements in technology and a growing awareness of environmental sustainability.
But how can we anticipate a possible 2050 future today? How can one ensure that the transportation systems one is building now will meet the needs of a rapidly evolving world? The answer lies in understanding and leveraging megatrends – powerful, transformative forces that shape the global landscape and drive change across industries, including transportation.
Understanding megatrends
Megatrends are long-term shifts that influence a wide array of sectors and aspects of society. These trends are often global in nature and have the potential to alter the course of economic, environmental, social, technological and political development over decades. The concept of megatrends was popularized by futurist Matthias Horx, who emphasized the importance of identifying such trends in order to anticipate future challenges and opportunities.
In the context of transportation, megatrends are crucial for shaping those strategies and investments that will define the industry’s trajectory over the coming decades. By understanding these trends, stakeholders can make informed decisions that align with the future needs of society, ensuring that transportation systems remain relevant and resilient.
Significance of megatrends in transportation
Megatrends play a significant role in shaping the future of transportation by influencing everything from infrastructure development to consumer behavior. Two megatrends in particular – Sustainability and Digitalization – are emerging as key drivers of change within the transportation sector. It is often not only the relevance of the individual megatrends that is discussed, but also their co-existence in the form of a twin transition, particularly in the regional strategies of individual nations.
Sustainability
As the world confronts the realities of climate change and environmental degradation, Sustainability has become a critical focus for the transportation sector.
Digitalization
Digitalization is revolutionizing the transportation sector, ushering in a new era of smarter, more efficient and sustainable mobility. The integration of digital technologies is transforming how transportation systems are designed, operated and experienced, paving the way for innovative solutions and new business models. One of the most significant developments is the rise of autonomous driving, which is projected to generate from USD 300 billion to USD 400 billion in revenue by 2035.
Moreover, the deployment of smart transport systems is becoming increasingly crucial to improving the efficiency, resilience and sustainability of transport networks. These systems, supported by advancements in digital infrastructure and data analytics, enable more personalized and connected transportation experiences. They also play a vital role in addressing environmental and social challenges, by making mobility greener and more inclusive.
The European Commission has highlighted the potential of digital technologies to revolutionize mobility, making it smarter and more sustainable.
Defining the future of transportation
Traditional transportation has been predominantly linked to the internal combustion engine and fossil fuel-based systems, which have been the backbone of the industry for over a century. However, the future of transportation is being reshaped by the two megatrends – Sustainability and Digitalization. These two trends are driving the development of innovative solutions such as electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles, autonomous systems, smart mobility platforms, and energy-efficient infrastructure.
To understand the future direction of transportation, it is essential to analyze the patent landscape associated with these two megatrends. Patents are a valuable indicator of technological innovation, highlighting areas where companies and researchers are investing resources and pushing the boundaries of what is possible.
By examining patent data related to Sustainability and Digitalization in transportation, we can uncover emerging technologies and potential breakthroughs that will define the sector’s evolution. This analysis not only reveals where innovation is happening but also provides valuable insights into the competitive dynamics and collaborative opportunities shaping the next generation of transportation.
A patent family is a collection of patent applications covering the same or similar technical content and all sharing one or more priority documents. Families are used to count inventions and not several patents corresponding to the same subject matter that have been filed in different jurisdictions. In short, one patent family can be considered to relate to one invention.
A review of the patent data reveals a clear trend: at a global level, research activities are increasingly shifting toward technologies that will define the future of transportation (Figure 2.2). The number of published patent families in technologies related to the megatrends of Sustainability and Digitalization increased from around 11,000 in 2000 to almost 120,000 in 2023, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 11%. In contrast, the number of patent family publications in all traditional transportation technologies has only grown by 4.2% over the same period and the number of traditional transportation patents has even declined in recent years after peaking in 2018. Traditional transportation technologies include all research areas either not or hardly related to the Sustainability and Digitalization megatrends, such as combustion engines, traditional gears or bearings, traditional turbofans, catalytic converters and tires. Due to the high research momentum in future transport technologies, their share in total transport patenting activity has risen from a modest 14% of all patent family publications in 2000 to a share of almost 40% in 2023. This upward trajectory suggests that innovations in areas like Sustainability and Digitalization are becoming increasingly central to the research and development strategies within the transportation sector.
If this trend continues, it could indicate a significant shift in focus away from traditional transportation technologies, such as combustion engines, toward those that promise greater efficiency, connectivity and environmental focus. The consistent rise in the proportion of future-oriented patent family publications hints at a potential transformation in the respective industries whereby sustainable and digital technologies could soon overshadow traditional modalities. Moreover, the growing share of patent family publications in these areas could be an early indicator of the sector’s response to the pressures of climate change, urbanization and the digital revolution.
The trajectory of technological innovation within the transportation sector is closely reflected in the dynamics of patent family publications related to Sustainability and Digitalization. As shown in Figure 2.3, these two megatrend areas have seen significant growth over the past two decades, indicating they are playing a critical role in shaping the future of transportation.
Sustainability in transportation
Patent family publications in sustainability-related technologies within the transportation sector have shown consistent growth (Figure 2.3), underscoring the industry's commitment to addressing environmental challenges. In 2000, there were around 5,000 sustainability-related patent family publications, reflecting early efforts to improve fuel efficiency and explore alternative energy sources. Over the next decade, this number grew steadily, reaching around 14,650 by 2010, as innovations in electric vehicles, renewable energy integration and emission reduction technologies gained momentum. The years following 2010 saw continued growth, with patent family publications increasing to more than 28,300 by 2016, driven by advancements and lowering costs in battery technology and the growing adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles.
Digitalization in transportation
Similarly to Sustainability, patent family publications related to Digitalization in transportation have demonstrated a remarkable upward trend from 2000 to 2023. Starting with around 6,000 publications in 2000, there has since been a steady increase, reflecting the growing integration of digital technologies into transportation systems. By 2010, patent family publications had reached around 10,600, signifying advancements in areas such as vehicle automation, data analytics and the initial development of connected vehicle technologies. Growth accelerated further in the subsequent decade, with publications rising sharply to almost 42,300 by 2018. This surge aligns with the rapid adoption of autonomous driving technologies such as lidar sensors, the expansion of smart mobility solutions and the increasing importance of digital platforms in transportation. By 2023, the number of patent family publications in Digitalization had surpassed 66,600 (22% of all patent family publications in transportation), highlighting the sector's strong focus on leveraging digital innovations to enhance efficiency, safety and connectivity.
The patent data from 2000 to 2023 clearly illustrates the dynamic nature of technological innovation in the transportation sector, with both Sustainability and Digitalization playing increasingly prominent, and equal, roles. In total, there have been 563,257 published patent families in the Sustainability megatrend between 2000 and 2023, and 566,243 published patent families in the Digitalization megatrend. As these trends continue to evolve, they will likely drive the development of new technologies and solutions that will define the future of transportation, making it more efficient, sustainable, and connected.
The dual challenge: Sustainability and Digitalization
The transportation sector faces the dual challenge of achieving Sustainability while at the same time embracing Digitalization. Addressing this challenge requires taking a nuanced approach that balances environmental considerations with the opportunities presented by new technologies. The report emphasizes the need for technological solutions that can navigate the complexities of modern transportation systems, delivering benefits that extend beyond efficiency to include safety, accessibility and user experience.
As we move toward 2030, the goal is to identify and analyze the technology trends that are shaping the future of transportation. By focusing on Sustainability and Digitalization, the transportation sector can meet the demands of a rapidly changing world, as well as contribute to the broader goals of economic growth, social inclusion and environmental stewardship.
Our cities have been built for vehicles and industrial transportation – they have not really been designed for people! People are on the side of those main transportation arteries that go through cities. Consider this in light of the fact that megacities are growing globally, and that eight of the 10 largest megacities are going to be in sub- Saharan Africa. This raises the question of what role transportation is going to play in reshaping our cities. Does it mean that rural areas get further marginalized as people gravitate more toward cities? This is the sort of dilemma we are grappling with.
Infrastructure in most cities today is old. When you add new vehicles we get this weird world of brand new, innovative, cool, fresh, modern technology coexisting with an old infrastructure where there is almost a nostalgic old way of doing things.
Somewhat as a side effect of this, we are seeing new cities being created with whole new ways of thinking about infrastructure and transportation.
Some companies think automated aerial vehicles, or flying cars, is an answer. But putting things in the air doesn't necessarily solve anything for cities. It just creates a raft of new problems, so people aren't going to use these flying vehicles for commuting. Where it becomes interesting is when you go into the connective tissue between cities and to rural areas. I think we are going to end up with hubs with last- mile connectivity driving hubs with autonomous highways from point to point, but also places to go and pick up your goods.
What we are then going to see is a rise of micromobility, like e-bikes and e-scooters, and human-powered mobility. Which may seem like going backward, but the only people that have told us that we need to go forward are the people selling us the vehicles. To say that we are going backward is a technologist’s narrative. To say that we are moving forward in a way that's more egalitarian, more effective, less harmful to the world in terms of emissions, and maybe more human is probably the better way to frame the narrative: changing our concept of what convenience and access in a modern city looks like, will have ripple effects all through.
Today we talk about the “five (or 15) minute city” like it is a revolution or a pipe dream. But that was how cities were in the past, and today we are moving in that direction. There needs to be a cultural shift toward adopting new technologies as we move forward. People need to be taught that there are different options for getting around, from walking to bikes to streetcars to an Uber; not simply jumping into your car the moment you need to get out of the house. There is also a cultural aspect to this – big cars in Northern America, bikes in Copenhagen and Amsterdam, tuk tuks in Bangkok – and that cultural identify is partly defined by the transportation infrastructure we have.
And something important that can be really powerful for innovation and changing the narrative is the storytelling. Be it cartoon, images, videos, sort of like science fiction. Not only can it change perspectives, it can also help sort the good ideas from the preposterous and explore different possible futures.
I think that there’s going to be a huge revolution when people realize that there's a lot that we can lean into, that has already been done and is proven.
Technology trends driving the transformation of transportation
The transportation sector, encompassing Land, Sea, Air and Space transportation, is undergoing a profound transformation driven by key technological advancements.
Through a systematic analysis of scientific research, market trend reports and governmental strategies, several critical technologies were identified that align with the megatrends of Sustainability and Digitalization. These technologies have been broadly categorized into four primary technology trend clusters in transportation, and explained further in Figure 2.4 – Sustainable Propulsion and Automation and Circularity are the two key technology trends for the Sustainability megatrend, and Communication and Security and Human–Machine Interface (HMI) are the two key technology drivers related to the Digitalization of transport. The selection of these four technology trends was driven by their pivotal role in shaping the future landscape of transportation.
Sustainable Propulsion is at the forefront of reducing the environmental footprint of transportation. Electric propulsion, hydrogen fuel cells and other alternative energy sources are key to this effort, driving the shift away from fossil fuels. These technologies are critical for achieving lower emissions and fostering a more sustainable future in transportation. In the subsequent analysis, the Sustainable Propulsion technologies are divided into the following sub-groups: batteries, efficient aircraft turbines (only for Air), efficient ship design (only for Sea), electric propulsion, hydrogen/fuel cells, and sustainable fuels.
Automation and Circularity focuses on streamlining production and promoting sustainability. Technologies like industrial robots, smart factories and additive manufacturing are revolutionizing production, making it more efficient and reducing waste. Circularity emphasizes the sustainable use of resources, with innovations in biopolymers and recycling processes that minimize environmental impact aligning with broader sustainability goals. The various Automation and Circularity technologies are divided into three sub-groups: efficient material use, recycling, and smart production.
Communication and Security technologies are essential for the safe and efficient operation of modern transportation systems. Innovations such as lidar sensors, 5G networks, connected vehicles (V2X), and smart city infrastructure enable the real- time data exchange so crucial for the development of autonomous driving, smart traffic management and enhanced safety. Such technologies ensure that transportation systems are both more connected and more secure, and responsive to dynamic conditions. For our analysis in the following chapters, we have further divided Communication and Security technologies into four sub-groups: cloud and cybersecurity, device-to-device communication, low-latency communication, and navigation.
HMI technologies are transforming the way users interact with transportation systems. Advances in touch displays, speech and facial recognition and extended reality are enhancing user experience, safety and accessibility. These innovations make transportation systems more intuitive and secure, improving how individuals interact with vehicles and other transport modalities.
Each of these technology trends represents an area of innovation vital to the future of transportation. The analysis of patent data reveals the rapid pace of development and adoption, providing insights into how the transportation sector is evolving to meet the demands of a sustainable and digitalized world (Figure 2.5). In the subsections that follow, the relevance of the four technology trend clusters identified will be explained in greater detail and patent family publications analyzed to give a first glimpse into the trends.
I believe that the transport sector is currently undergoing three interlinked transformations, driven by significant technological advancements: small, medium and large vehicles are being electrified; they are progressively getting automated; and they can be easily shared and accessed on-demand.
Electrification is at the heart of future-oriented energy and transport policies. Both the NextGenerationEU plan in the European Union and the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States signal growth opportunities for green technologies. Securing a value chain for electric vehicles, from material sourcing to recycling, has become a priority in ensuring a successful transition to low-emission mobility, since innovations in battery technologies, especially lithium-ion batteries, have opened new opportunities to power smaller and larger vehicles alike more cleanly and efficiently.
The uptake of battery electric vehicles (EVs) has been particularly dynamic in the passenger car and city bus segments, thanks to innovations in fields such as battery chemistry, vehicle lightweighting and battery management systems, along with a favorable regulatory framework that has EV sales and charging infrastructure as deployment targets. In parallel, the availability of cheaper and more performant batteries has given rise to a variety of so-called “Light Electric Vehicles” (LEVs) such as e-bikes, e-mopeds and e-scooters. These e-bikes and e-scooters are proving popular and provide suitable mobility options, especially for shorter trips in urban areas.
Automation is another major opportunity for the mobility sector. Automated driving features are already omnipresent in new vehicles, improving safety and assisting drivers with lane or parking assistance. Meantime, fully autonomous vehicles are being piloted in a range of locations and circumstances, but full-scale deployment is still to come. However, progress in vehicle automation is already leading to safety improvements and expected to yield further safety benefits. For public transport operators and logistics companies, vehicle automation is expected to alleviate workforce issues and compensate for a lack of bus, tram, metro and truck drivers, which is a widespread global issue, although its severity and root causes vary by region.
Shared mobility has been redefining the way people move around cities. Either in the form of car-sharing, ride-hailing or shared micromobility, it signals a wider shift from vehicle ownership to vehicle use only when needed. The shared mobility sector is fueled by application-based innovations that typically have low barriers to entry, allowing startups to challenge the mobility status quo. For this to happen, efficient data sharing is required, as it enables the deployment of new mobility services and the improvement of existing transport systems.
I strongly believe that the uptake of shared mobility services depends on affordability and user-friendliness. In the mid- to long-term, the balance between a good level of shared mobility options and local, national and EU-level regulations that disincentivize the use of private cars in cities will determine the impact of shared mobility services on vehicle ownership. Effective collaboration between academia, industry and government is essential for successful and sustainable innovations in mobility. Public support is essential for risk-mitigation in early-stage innovations, as is coordination between government, industry and academia to match the new requirements of our mobility systems with the right investment and skills.
Sustainable Propulsion
Sustainable Propulsion is a key trend within the Sustainability domain. It encompasses the development of technologies that reduce the environmental impact of transportation by utilizing cleaner, more efficient propulsion systems. This includes electric propulsion, hydrogen fuel cells and alternative fuels applicable across all transportation modalities.
The shift toward Sustainable Propulsion is driven by the need to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Technologies within this cluster are being developed to power land vehicles, ships, aircraft, and even spacecraft with minimal environmental impact. By focusing on Sustainable Propulsion, transportation systems are moving toward a future where efficiency and environmental stewardship go hand in hand.
Clustering these technologies together highlights the sector-wide push toward Sustainability, in which advancements in propulsion are central to achieving global environmental goals.
The patent data for Sustainable Propulsion shows a strong and consistent increase in patent family publications (Figure 2.5), indicating significant advancements and interest in this area. Starting with about 5,000 patent family publications in 2000, the number has grown steadily, surpassing 10,000 in 2006, and reaching over 55,000 by 2023 (18% of all patent family publications in transportation technologies in 2023).
This significant growth highlights the industry’s shift toward sustainable technologies as a response to global environmental challenges. The sharp rise in patents underscores the transportation sector’s commitment to developing propulsion systems that align with sustainability goals, making it one of the most dynamic areas of innovation.
The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is set to revolutionize road transport, necessitating an estimated 2.18 billion EVs on the roads by 2050 to align with the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree scenario.
Smart electrification strategies are required in order to provide operational benefits for power systems through flexibility and storage services, and minimise grid investments needed to accommodate increasing load. Smart charging optimizes the charging process using intelligent algorithms that consider electricity prices, renewable generation, local congestion, battery ageing and consumer needs. This allows EV owners to charge when prices are lower, reducing peak demand and cutting the need for additional generation, transmission and distribution capacity.
At the distribution grid level, smart charging can avoid overloading components and assets, improve voltage quality and reduce energy losses. Co-location of EV charging points with solar generation creates synergies, with peak solar generation occurring when most passenger vehicles are parked. Workplace charging, combined with solar photovoltaic rooftop arrays and solar canopies over parking lots, should be encouraged. That said, major investments in charging infrastructure are required to support this transition. IRENA estimates that a cumulative investment of USD 9 trillion for electric charging infrastructure is required between now and 2050. The main barriers to rapidly electrifying transportation are the cost of vehicles and the charging infrastructure they require.
Innovations are emerging designed to overcome the challenges of smart electrification. They include the lack of a clear business model, incompatible payment systems, cybersecurity and data protection issues, and complicated permitting procedures, as well as operating an increasingly decentralised system. Successful solutions require not only technological innovations, but also innovations in market design and regulation, system planning and operation, and business models.
Successful solutions require a systemic innovation approach. However, there is no one-size-fits-all solution – optimal smart electrification strategies depend both on the country context and on system-specific variables. They also must take social and cultural aspects into account. IRENA's Innovation Landscape for Smart Electrification identifies 35 emerging innovations that can support policymakers in building tailored strategies for the smart charging of EVs.
Digital technologies, such as energy management platforms, AI algorithms and blockchain, can improve customer acceptance of EVs and increase renewable energy shares. However, without innovations on the regulatory side – such as dynamic tariffs– and on the planning and operation side – such as increasing grid data transparency – the full potential of digital technologies cannot be unlocked for smart charging.
Automation and Circularity
The Automation and Circularity trend combines two critical aspects of modern transportation: automation, which enhances efficiency and reduces operational costs, and circularity, which focuses on creating sustainable, closed-loop systems that minimize waste. This trend includes advancements in autonomous systems, AI- driven logistics and sustainable manufacturing practices.
Automation technologies are revolutionizing how transportation systems operate, making them more efficient, reliable and scalable. Across all modalities, automation is leading to significant improvements in operational efficiency, from autonomous systems and vessels to automated logistics and supply chain management.
Circularity, on the other hand, focuses on the lifecycle of materials and products within the transportation sector. This includes the development of recyclable materials, sustainable manufacturing processes and the design of transportation systems that prioritize resource efficiency. By clustering automation and circularity together, we underline the complementary nature of these technologies in creating transportation systems that are not just efficient but also sustainable.
Patents for Automation and Circularity technologies demonstrate a significant and accelerating growth trend (Figure 2.5). Starting with just over 1,200 in 2000, patent family publications increased gradually until 2012, when the pace of growth began to accelerate. By 2023, the number of patent family publications had reached almost 19,000 (6% of all patent family publications in transportation technologies in 2023). This surge reflects the growing importance both of automation technologies, such as autonomous transportation and AI in logistics, and circular economy principles within the transportation sector. The increasing number of patents indicates a strong focus on creating transportation systems that are both more efficient and more sustainable, with a clear emphasis on reducing the environmental impact through smarter resource use.
Communication and Security
Communication and Security is an essential trend within the broader Digitalization of transportation. It encompasses those technologies that enable secure and reliable communication between vehicles, infrastructure and users across all modalities. This field includes the development of vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication, cybersecurity measures and data encryption technologies critical for the safe and efficient operation of modern transportation systems.
Across all modalities – whether Land, Sea, Air or Space – communication technologies are enabling seamless data exchange, thereby improving the coordination and efficiency of transport networks. For example, V2X communications allow different elements of the transportation ecosystem to interact in real-time, enhancing traffic management and safety. Security technologies, including encryption, firewalls and intrusion detection systems, are crucial for safeguarding such communications and protecting sensitive data from cyberattack.
By clustering these technologies under the umbrella of Communication and Security, we highlight the essential role of connected and secure systems in the future of transportation, ensuring that digital systems remain robust and resilient.
The trend in patent filings for Communication and Security has also shown significant growth over the past two decades (Figure 2.5). Starting with a little over 5,000 patent family publications in 2000, the number of publications increased steadily, reaching almost 8,000 in 2008, before then accelerating sharply to over 50,000 by 2023 (17% of all patent family publications in transportation in 2023). This upward trajectory reflects the increasing importance of secure and seamless communication in transportation, particularly as autonomous and connected vehicles become more prevalent. The consistent rise in patenting activity suggests that ongoing innovation in this area will continue to be a critical focus as transportation systems become more digital and interconnected.
Human–Machine Interface (HMI)
The Human–Machine Interface (HMI) trend focuses on those technologies that govern the interaction between humans and transportation systems. As transportation technologies become more complex, the need for intuitive, user- friendly interfaces grows. This trend includes innovations in dashboards, touchscreens, voice controls and augmented reality systems that enhance the user experience.
This trend includes a wide range of technologies, from touchscreens and voice- activated controls to augmented reality displays. Such innovations are designed to simplify and enhance the user experience across all transportation modalities. In Land, Sea, Air and Space transport, HMIs are crucial for improving situational awareness, reducing cognitive load, and ensuring that users can operate increasingly complex systems with ease.
By clustering HMI technologies, we emphasize the importance of user-centric design in the future of transportation, where the focus is on creating interfaces that are not solely functional but also enhance safety and accessibility.
Patent activity in the HMI field has also shown a steady increase (Figure 2.5), beginning with over 650 patent family publications in 2000 and reaching over 9,000 by 2023 (3% of all patent family publications in transportation technologies in 2023). This growth reflects the ongoing development of more sophisticated interfaces that improve safety, efficiency and user experience. The rise in patents, particularly after 2013, suggests that, as vehicles and other transportation systems become more autonomous and feature-rich, the demand for advanced HMI solutions will continue to grow, making it a vital area of innovation in the coming years.
The big trends I see affecting transportation are decarbonization – not only batteries but also solar power – and the stitching together of transport modalities through digital platforms. This is what I call the “internet of motion.” We are going to start to see that it is getting easier and easier to use different modes of transport in a very linked-up way. Several European cities have tried subscription pricing for all modes of transport plus a certain number of hours for other things like car sharing.
I think where we're going to end up is with people subscribing to transport in the same way they subscribe to a mobile phone. If I go to a different country, my transport provider will “roam” onto one of the local transport providers. It will be just like mobile networks. You will have roaming agreements and probably end up with, you know, two or three big providers in every country. The idea will be that multiple modes of transport are treated as a single transport system and your smartphone stitches it all together, because it knows where you are, can handle the payments, and so forth.
However, there is a clear lesson from the past about what we should be watching for from this shift to the internet of motion. Cars were expected to solve the problems caused by horse-driven carriages – piled up manure, rotting dead horses or accidents caused by misbehaving horses. But cars cause other issues – exhaust emissions, congestion, as well as more accidents. Now similar claims are being made for electric and autonomous cars: they will reduce exhaust emissions, lessen traffic and so on. All true. But I think the lesson of history is that we need to look out for the emissions, the exhaust products.
And in the case of the new transport infrastructure, the exhaust product is data. And the question is who has access to that data? Because, in theory, there are some bad things that could happen. The data can potentially reveal quite a lot about people's personal lives, their political preferences and other potentially sensitive things. If you have a digitalized transport infrastructure, that becomes potentially a very powerful tool of coercion and control. And you can imagine how authoritarian or racist societies might implement policies based on that. So we're already starting to see some concern around this.
However, city governments want some transparency and a sharing of this data. This is so they can do transport planning, or so that law enforcement can use it for solving crimes. So there is some tension between how much openness and transparency is imposed on service providers, and the need for personal privacy.
We've been caught out in the past by unexpected exhaust products from transport infrastructure. First it was horse manure, then it was CO2. This time it's data. We must not make the same mistake again!