The transportation sector is at the forefront of technological transformation, driven by the dual megatrends of Sustainability and Digitalization. These are together reshaping how transportation systems operate across the four principal transport modalities – Land, Sea, Air, and Space. By analyzing patent data and other data sources like scientific research, market reports and governmental strategies, we have identified the key technology trends that align with the two megatrends. These technology trends can be categorized into four primary clusters: Sustainable Propulsion, Automation and Circularity, Communication and Security, and Human–Machine Interface. In this chapter a synthesis of the main findings of the analysis is provided, based on the prevailing innovation dynamics, to envision the future of transportation technologies.
Synthesis of the report
Sustainability focuses on reducing the environmental impact of transportation through innovations in propulsion systems, material use, and circular economy practices. This includes the adoption of electric propulsion, hydrogen, and the recycling of critical materials. Meanwhile, Digitalization in transportation is primarily centered around enhancing connectivity, improving user interfaces, and automating processes. This includes the development of advanced communication networks, IoT integrations, and autonomous systems that rely on real-time data exchange and machine learning.
By categorizing these technologies, we identified the most impactful trends for each modality, based on the patent growth rate from 2018 to 2023 (Figure 6.1).
Communication and Security is a critical area of innovation across all transportation modalities, with varying degrees of growth. The highest growth is observed in Space | Communication and Security, with a 13.1% increase in patent activity from 2018–2023. This reflects a high demand for advanced communication technologies in space, driven by an increasing number of satellite launches, space exploration missions, and the commercialization of space travel.
Sea | Communication and Security follows closely, with a 9.3% growth rate. The maritime sector is increasingly adopting advanced Communication and Security technologies to improve navigation, monitor environmental conditions and enhance safety at sea. These advancements are essential as global trade via sea continues to grow and as maritime operations become more automated.
Land | Communication and Security has a 9.0% growth rate, indicating steady innovation in areas such as connected cars (V2X), smart city infrastructure and advanced traffic management systems. These technologies are crucial for developing smart transportation systems that are safer, more efficient and better integrated into urban environments.
In contrast, Air | Communication and Security shows a relatively low growth rate of 3.9%. This could suggest that, while there is ongoing innovation, the Air transportation sector may be more focused on other pressing challenges or that key Communication and Security technologies have already reached a certain level of maturity.
Automation and Circularity is another significant trend, with Land | Automation and Circularity leading the way at a 13.1% growth rate. This reflects the rapid development of smart manufacturing practices, and the increasing emphasis on Sustainability through circular economy principles. The Land transport sector, particularly automotive, is at the forefront of integrating automation into production and vehicle operation, while also exploring ways to recycle and reuse materials efficiently.
Sea | Automation and Circularity shows a 6.3% growth rate, highlighting the maritime industry's efforts to automate operations and embrace sustainable practices. This includes the development of autonomous ships and smart ports.
Space | Automation and Circularity has a similar growth rate, at 5.6%. In contrast, Air | Automation and Circularity has a negative growth rate of –0.2% over the period. While space missions are increasingly automated, and there is a growing focus on sustainable space exploration (e.g., minimizing space debris through international regulations), the relatively lower growth rate suggests that these areas are either facing more complex challenges or are at an earlier stage of development. The decline in Automation and Circularity technologies in Air transportation might indicate that the aviation industry is currently focusing on other areas.
Sustainable Propulsion is a high-growth area, particularly within Space and Sea modalities. Space | Sustainable Propulsion shows a 10.0% growth rate, driven by the need for more efficient and environmentally-friendly propulsion systems for space exploration and satellite deployment. This includes advancements in electric propulsion, solar sails and other innovative technologies that could reduce dependency on traditional chemical rockets.
Sea | Sustainable Propulsion follows, a 9.2% growth rate reflecting the maritime sector's shift toward reducing emissions through using alternative fuels like liquefied natural gas (LNG), hydrogen and battery-electric propulsion systems. The global focus on decarbonizing shipping is likely to be driving this trend.
Land | Sustainable Propulsion has a growth rate of 8.0%, which, while significant, indicates a more mature field having established technologies like EVs and hybrid systems. The ongoing innovation in battery technology and charging infrastructure continues to move this sector forward.
Interestingly, Air | Sustainable Propulsion shows a slight decline of –0.8%, suggesting that, while have been efforts to develop greener aviation technologies, such as electric or hydrogen-powered aircraft, the sector faces substantial technical and regulatory challenges that are slowing the pace of innovation. The challenges faced by the aviation industry in recent years, in particular those due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, are also likely to have contributed to the recent slowdown in patenting activity.
HMI is experiencing varied innovation dynamics across different modalities. Land | HMI shows a growth of 7.8%, reflecting continued improvements in vehicle interfaces, such as touchscreens, voice control and augmented reality (AR) systems, which enhance the driving experience and safety.
However, Sea | HMI and Space | HMI have experienced negative growth rates of – 1.5% and –2.9%, respectively. This could indicate a shift in focus away from interface innovations in these modalities, possibly because existing HMI technologies have already reached a sufficient level of development, or because other areas, like automation and propulsion, are taking priority.
The most significant decline is seen in Air | HMI, with a –3.7% negative growth rate. This decline might be due to the aviation industry's current focus on other critical challenges, such as Sustainable Propulsion, and the post-COVID-19 challenges that the aviation industry has faced, as mentioned above.
The innovation dynamics across these four technology trends indicate a robust focus on Communication and Security and Automation and Circularity technologies, particularly within the Space and Land modalities. Sustainable Propulsion is also gaining momentum, especially within the Space and Sea sectors, driven by a global push toward reducing environmental impact. In contrast, HMI technologies appear to be either plateauing or declining within certain modalities, suggesting that other technology trends might be taking precedence as the industry shifts its focus to emerging challenges and opportunities.
Roy Amara (1925–2007) was an American scientist, futurist and President of the Institute of the Future. He famously coined the following adage, that was to become Amara’s Law: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run."
This concept highlights how excitement over a new technology often leads to inflated expectations about how soon and significantly it will transform our lives. Over time, as early hurdles are encountered and initial predictions prove too optimistic, society becomes disillusioned. Yet, in the long term, these technologies can still achieve a profound and lasting impact – but just not as quickly as initially thought.
In the context of this report, autonomous vehicles provide a clear example of Amara’s Law. Around a decade ago
As of 2025, autonomous vehicles still struggle in complex or unpredictable environments, such as incrowded urban areas or poor weather conditions. There have also been safety concerns raised, leading to regulatory roadblocks and increased scrutiny. Infrastructure and legal frameworks have not adapted quickly enough to support the widespread use of autonomous vehicles.
Despite early optimism and many technological advances, fully driverless cars remain confined to controlled environments and limited testing areas, indicating a lengthy periodahead before they achieve the projected societal benefits on a wide scale. Nonetheless, in the long run, they might still revolutionize transportation once the hurdles are addressed. However, Amara’s Law reminds us to temper expectations and approach predictions about rapid, radical change with caution.
Envisioning the future
As we look ahead to the year 2030, the transportation sector is set to become transformed by rapid advancements in technology, driven by the key trends identified in our analysis. The world of 2030 will be marked by interconnected, automated and sustainable transportation systems, with each modality of Land, Sea, Air, and Space contributing to a more efficient and environmentally-friendly global network.
Record numbers of people began working from home in the wake of COVID-19, and those numbers are still very high. The increased amount of remote work is good for reducing commutes and is also good for reducing hydrocarbon consumption on the road and the associated emissions. However, we also see a record number of people engaging in e-commerce. This will make the utilization of low emission vehicles in delivery fleets important for reducing hydrocarbon emissions.
Revolutions in transportation will take time because the average age of vehicles in the US fleet is at a record high of 14 years, according to the S&P Global Mobility Report. Moreover, due to high vehicle costs, the vehicle fleet age is likely to rise further. The implication for electric vehicles or any other innovation is clear: even if every new cars were to change to electric tomorrow, it would still take 14 years for every passenger car to be an electric car. The same would be true for automated self-driving vehicles.
Envisioning the year 2030, we combined the analysis of innovation dynamics with a technology maturity check (based on publicly available information) using the technology readiness level model adopted from NASA
By 2030, the rapid innovation dynamics observed in Space | Communication and Security and Land | Automation and Circularity will have led to the deployment of a range of advanced products and systems that redefine how transportation operates.
Space | Communication and Security is set to revolutionize Space travel and satellite technologies. The concept of satellite constellations providing global internet coverage is already well advanced, with companies like SpaceX's Starlink and OneWeb in advanced stages of deployment (TRL 8–9).
Progress in Land | Automation and Circularity, as well as Land | Communication and Security, will have revolutionized urban mobility by 2030. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are currently being tested on public roads, with multiple companies targeting commercial deployment (TRL 7–8).
In the maritime sector, Sea | Communication and Security and Sea | Sustainable Propulsion will have transformed shipping and naval operations. Autonomous cargo ships – already under development – are expected to see a limited deployment by 2030 (TRL 6–8).
Cities are making multimodal transport easier. On the flip side, they're making car ownership harder. It's becoming more expensive and less convenient to own a car. I think having access to a vehicle or having access to transport is really what matters, not actually owning a car.
I also think that in the future we may have a wider mix of vehicle types. And the space worth watching is in between bicycles (or e-bikes) and cars (or electric cars). I’m thinking of things like electric quadricycles, such as the Citroën Ami, or cargo bikes. You wouldn’t want to do a long road trip in them, but they are fine for short trips.
Challenges and opportunities
While 2030 holds the promise of significant advancements, the path forward is not without its challenges. Regulatory frameworks need to evolve rapidly to match the pace of innovation, particularly for automated vehicles and space travel. Existing regulations may need substantial adaptation to assure safety and foster innovation without stifling growth. The complexity of international cooperation, especially within the space and maritime domains, will require diplomatic efforts alongside technical advancements.
Funding remains a critical issue, particularly within capital-intensive sectors like space exploration and sustainable aviation. However, the rise of public–private partnerships, venture capital and innovative funding mechanisms, like green bonds, is already helping to drive technologies forward.
The convergence of sustainability efforts across different sectors presents a unique opportunity to reduce environmental impact while fostering innovation. New markets, particularly in urban air mobility and space, are likely to emerge as mature technologies creating economic growth opportunities.
AI integration across all modalities will continue to unlock new capabilities, making transportation systems smarter and more responsive. For example, generative AI (GenAI) is playing a key role in the development of autonomous driving, because GenAI models allow the simultaneous generation of multiple scenarios, the prediction of future vehicle trajectories and the advancement of decision-reasoning chains. These approaches enhance safety, efficiency and flexibility, while at the same time significantly reducing risk and associated costs.
The future of transportation is a mix of software development, hardware development, and the integration of the two. It is about collecting data, testing, and the development of automation technologies. At the same time, it is also about fuel- efficient technologies, including electric vehicles. However, there is one really big catch when considering the future of electric vehicles: the limited supply of battery materials and their supply chains.
Battery materials for electric vehicles are relatively scarce. This means that battery material prices could rise dramatically if demand continues to rise but supplies remain constrained. As such, electric vehicles with low utilization rates are sub- optimal users of batteries compared to electric vehicles in fleets with high utilization rates. The utilization of individual personal lightweight vehicles, for example in the United States, might be in the 3–7% range. But almost all the time, those cars are sitting in a driveway or garage not doing anything. This is an inefficient use of battery materials.
Battery materials are much scarcer than oil. And some of them come from areas that are becoming more sensitive geopolitically. The most efficient allocation of these resources may require prioritizing the use of electric vehicles for fleets with high vehicle utilization operating at levels where the battery is not a major deterrent to operational optimization. Included among these vehicles would be mid-range medium-weight vehicles like delivery vans, mail trucks, buses, tugboats, and other vehicles that operate within a limited range and close to a depot where they can go for a recharge. Heavy long-haul trucks do not fit in this list because the weight of the batteries greatly reduces the range and thus the efficiency of their use in reducing hydrocarbon consumption.
Both heavy-duty trucks and personal vehicles embody sub-optimal electric vehicle deployment at scale globally given the current state of battery technology. On the upside, battery technology is evolving. However, even if batteries improve, critical battery raw materials coming from geopolitically sensitive places could hinder supply chain access and battery production potential for many countries. Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles could be a great option. But we are not there yet, based on infrastructure and cost. Costs are falling, and the potential is rising, but it will take time. Looking to the future, I foresee a mix of transport solutions over time, both from an automation and software standpoint and from fuel use across different modes of transport.
The scarcity of battery materials and access to them is a big concern. There is going to be a massive shortfall of these materials through 2040. According to research produced by the International Energy Forum in conjunction with the Payne Institute of Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines, we need 1.8 Chile’s worth of copper (Chile is the world’s biggest copper producer). The situation is similar for nickel and cobalt: we will need 1.3 Indonesia’s worth of nickel and 2.4 Democratic Republic of Congo’s worth of cobalt. Plus, this additional metal demand is only what’s required for the electrification goals of the energy transition through 2040.
If the future of transportation should remain centered on electric vehicles as the main conduit of the energy transition, then the future of transportation is mining. A lot more mining would be required for those materials that make up batteries: on land, on and under the seabed floor, and perhaps at some point on asteroids.
A personal electric car battery – the utilization rates of which may be around just 5% for personal vehicles – is far too valuable a resource to have sitting in a garage the vast majority of the time. Although consumer demand for electric vehicles has resulted in great technological innovation, if we don't find a better way to stretch these battery materials, we're going to have a major shortfall in battery production and significant spikes in battery prices. This means the other future of transportation is recycling batteries. The need to reclaim those scarce battery materials and make the entire cycle more sustainable is essential for making electric vehicles a lasting part of the energy transition.
Most companies, countries, and individuals are trying to reduce their carbon dioxide footprint. To that end, we need to stretch the use of hydrocarbon molecules in fossil fuels as well as the use of battery materials.
Developing hydrogen and other renewable fuels will be critical to reducing emissions as will generating more power to fuel electric and other low carbon footprint vehicles. Power grids will need to increasingly draw power from a range of sources, including sustainable sources like solar and wind, as well as nuclear. With automated vehicle potential increasing, the use of data and AI will rise, which also requires a lot of power. So, the future of transportation will also be about power generation, power plants, power storage (with large-scale batteries), and power grids. On the upside for electric vehicle batteries, once we get to self-driving cars, we would have the potential for personal vehicle fleets that would offer a higher utilization rate of electric batteries.
In any scenario, we will have to drastically increase mining, which will leave an environmental footprint. These things are not without an environmental trade-off. It will be very difficult to have everything green and clean and cheap and available and without any environmental impact. We will need to make trade-offs in transitioning to a world in which we have clean, cheap, green, affordable, and available transport for everyone. The process is going to require massive investment, major technological innovation, significant production efficiencies that lower costs, and a lot more time than most people expect.
When people look back at this transition a hundred years from now, they will see that the changes in transportation and the energy transition was a process. And, as with any process, it will take time.
Considerations for the future of transportation
As we approach 2030, the following stakeholders within the transportation sector might find it beneficial to explore the opportunities that emerging technologies present and consider ways to collaborate in order to foster innovation.
Governments and policymakers may want to consider continuing to nurture innovation through strategic investments in research and development and by fostering public-private partnerships. Creating flexible and adaptive regulatory environments could be a way of ensuring that new technologies are safely and effectively integrated into society, which in turn might pave the way for widespread adoption and public trust.
Additionally, governments play a vital role in standards development – a key area for the future of transportation. Developing and enforcing standards can create a cohesive framework for interoperability, safety and performance across various technologies and regions. Consistent standards will be essential for integrating complex systems like autonomous vehicles, electric infrastructure and digital connectivity. In a rapidly evolving technological landscape, aligning on standards early could simplify regulatory processes, reduce compliance burdens on industry and help harmonize innovations across borders.
By participating in international standards organizations and establishing a collaborative approach to standards, governments can support the global compatibility essential for cross-border transportation and trade. In turn, this could lead to a more unified and sustainable global transportation system, supporting economic growth and encouraging innovation that aligns with broader societal goals such as sustainability and accessibility.
Industry leaders and innovators could focus on areas with a significant growth potential such as automation and sustainability. There could also be value in exploring untapped opportunities in less dynamic sectors that might nonetheless yield substantial benefits. By integrating sustainable practices into their core strategies, companies could find themselves better aligned with evolving regulations and growing consumer demand for environmentally responsible solutions. Another essential consideration is collaboration on standards development. By working with governments and regulatory bodies early in the development cycle, industry leaders can help shape standards that benefit the sector as a whole, ensuring that innovations are interoperable, safe and compatible across global markets.
Emphasizing sustainable supply chains is another key avenue. As sustainability becomes a higher priority for consumers, investors and policymakers alike, companies that commit to decarbonizing their supply chains, minimizing waste and promoting a circular economy could find themselves better aligned with regulations and market expectations. This could involve using more sustainable materials, designing products for longevity and investing in the infrastructure needed for recycling and repurposing materials at scale.
Finally, building public trust in new technologies is crucial. Industry leaders can play an active role in education, transparency and communication efforts to address public concerns about new transportation solutions such as safety and data privacy. By prioritizing transparency and accountability, companies could help promote consumer confidence, supporting smoother transitions to new technologies and fostering long- term brand loyalty.
Researchers and academics might consider investigating the challenges that could hinder innovation, particularly with an emphasis on developing new materials and production methods that are environmentally sustainable, cost-effective and scalable. For example, research into lightweight materials, biodegradable components or renewable energy sources could support the decarbonization of the transportation sector. Advancements in battery technology, hydrogen fuel cells and energy storage will be essential to electrifying transportation systems and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, breakthroughs in materials science could improve the lifespan and durability of vehicles and infrastructure, leading to reduced waste and resource usage over time.
With transportation moving toward interconnected systems, researchers can focus on models that integrate transportation technologies with urban infrastructure. Smart cities require the advanced modeling of traffic patterns, energy consumption and environmental impact. Researchers could work on simulations and data-driven models that predict how new transportation options will affect cities and help design infrastructure that supports efficient, safe and sustainable movement of people and goods. Research in this area might also include strategies for better public transportation systems, shared mobility options and micromobility solutions that reduce traffic congestion and emissions.
The challenges in transportation are complex and require expertise from multiple disciplines, including engineering, environmental science, data science, ethics and economics. International collaboration will be crucial, especially because transportation is increasingly a global system with cross-border standards and interoperability needs. Partnerships between universities, research institutions, governments and industry could accelerate innovation by pooling resources and knowledge. By collaborating globally, researchers can also address regional variations in transportation needs and adapt solutions to local contexts, thereby enhancing global mobility and accessibility.
The empty roads we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic were a stark reminder of how much space in our cities is dedicated to cars. It was wishful thinking that the pandemic would change things, as we now see that traffic congestion is back. And this is a global trend.
There is a risk to our cities that comes from time lost sitting in traffic, more pollution and an overall negative effect on the economy. We must provide an answer to people’s need to travel and rethink the way our streets are shared between different modes of transport.
Electrification, also of city buses, is the first trend I foresee. It is not simply about replacing diesel with battery, but also about redesigning the depots, building relationships with power companies, and addressing supply chain challenges, when cities all over the world are clamoring for fleets of electric buses.
Digitalization is another related trend that can transform urban transportation. From more efficient operations to flexible, on-demand services and predictive maintenance, to better services for travelers. This comes with the challenge of cybersecurity, protecting the entire system, especially with the growing automation of vehicles. Here, I am very clear that we should not substitute individually-owned cars by individually-owned driverless cars. Because if we do that, we will make the challenge worse, because we will have empty cars running in our streets and this will create more traffic. Our approach should be to integrate on-demand and shared mobility within public transport.
Something not often highlighted is a shortage of staff within the public transportation sector in many regions of the world. This impacts not only the hiring of drivers, but also hiring people with the types of skills that electrification and digitalization will need. The problem is that we are competing with so many other sectors like banking or manufacturing for the same set of skills. Public transportation efforts should be proactive in finding such skilled people.
Added to that only about 20% of public transportation staff are women. But in many countries they are the dominant users of public transportation. Women comprise about 60% of users in France. We need to get more women involved: in managing, in designing, operating and maintaining. And maybe this is the right time for that.
These days, public transportation is also coming under scrutiny for not generating enough revenue. Cost is increasing while ridership is recovering. In addition, policymakers want low fare or even free public transport. So, we have this equation whereby costs are growing and revenues stagnating or decreasing. This means that the model needs to change.
Some ideas envisage generating revenue from other sources through making those who benefit from public transport pay for it. For instance, those real estate or landowners whose property values increase, because a metro is serving them; or those employers for whom public transport brings their staff to the workplace. In addition, service quality and options need to be good. This will help a cultural shift away from thinking that an individual car is the best option for getting around.
We cannot ask people to leave their car, if we don't offer an alternative that is high quality, affordable and which goes everywhere. This is possible only, if we have an integrated view of mobility. We cannot manage traffic or infrastructure separately from managing the public transportation system. We need to try to tackle all modes together and to put ourselves into the shoes of travelers. A person who uses their car one day could be a bike user the next, and also use the bus or take a taxi. It is complex. But it’s the only way to tackle it. And we cannot ignore the large, informal transport networks in many places around the world. They should be considered part of the public system, ultimately to the benefit of everyone.
Developing a robust public transport system can be done. The main challenge is having the political will to do it. Countries that have done so have not regretted it. Maybe there needs to be an opportunity, an incentive. For example, the FIFA World Cup brought the bus rapid transit system to Johannesburg in 2010, and the driverless metro to Doha in 2021, and with it the belief that doing so was good for the country.
The road ahead to 2030
The future of transportation lies at a complex intersection of Sustainability and Digitalization, where continuous innovation must navigate the challenge of advancing both these megatrends simultaneously. As we look toward 2030, it becomes increasingly clear that a holistic, integrated approach leveraging the unique strengths of each transportation modality will be essential in creating a more connected, efficient and sustainable global transportation network. Land, Sea, Air, and Space transport are not isolated systems but are interconnected elements of a broader ecosystem. Innovating collectively within this ecosystem can lead to transformative advancements that surpass the potential of any single modality.
Advancements in Space communication technologies, for instance, can significantly enhance global navigation and communication systems, benefiting both maritime and aviation industries. Similarly, breakthroughs in Sustainable Propulsion within the maritime sector can inspire innovations in Land transportation, particularly in heavy logistics and long-distance travel. Ensuring that innovation in one area informs and drives progress in others can build a transportation system greater than the sum of its parts.
However, it is crucial to recognize the substantial investment required to master both Sustainability and Digitalization, especially in a world where business environments are increasingly fragile owing to geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies and conflicts. These challenges add layers of complexity to achieving the dual goals of Sustainability and Digitalization, as the cost of innovation rises and the stability of global markets is questioned. As such, stakeholders may need to prioritize adaptability and resilience in their strategic planning, ensuring that investment is robust enough to withstand these external pressures.
The next decade promises to be one of profound change for transportation technologies, driven by the technology trends identified in this report. As Sustainability becomes ever more critical and Digitalization deepens, the transportation sector will need to adopt strategies that are flexible and responsive to the rapidly changing technological landscape.
To navigate these challenges, stakeholders across the industry – governments, businesses, and researchers – might want to consider embracing proactive and innovative approaches. This involves not only developing new technologies but also rethinking regulatory frameworks, business models and research priorities. Given the heightened risks associated with global economic and political instability, a concerted effort to anticipate future needs and to create solutions that are not just reactive but transformative will be essential.
As we journey toward 2030, the transportation sector has the opportunity to redefine mobility in a way that is more sustainable, efficient, and inclusive.
Despite recent challenges
MaaS also supports a shift toward more sustainable and shared transportation. It encourages people to combine public transit and shared mobility options instead of relying solely on private cars, which helps reduce traffic congestion, lower emissions, and optimize urban space. It also offers cost efficiency through tailored subscription models or pay-as-you-go plans, making transportation more accessible and affordable for a wide range of users.
MaaS apps can integrate innovations across all modalities, and by remaining vigilant against the challenges posed by global uncertainties, we can ensure that the transportation systems of the future are equipped to meet the demands of a rapidly evolving world, paving the way for a truly connected and sustainable global community.
By 2050, I believe that mobility will be defined by a complete transformation toward environmentally-friendly, decarbonized transportation solutions. The foundation for this development was laid long ago, with pioneers like the Swiss Tribelhorn company, which was already manufacturing electric vehicles as early as the 1900s, long before the electric mobility boom. These early visionaries are now not only role models, but also trailblazers for the transportation of the future.
I envisage the cities of 2050 as smart, interconnected hubs with a completely new flow of traffic. Public transportation will be fully electric and autonomous. High-speed trains will connect metropolitan areas, while covered, climate-controlled networks of hyperloop-like systems will link cities in just minutes. These transport modes will be nearly silent and extremely energy efficient. In urban areas, traffic jams and air pollution will be a thing of the past, as private cars will have almost completely disappeared from the streets.
Electric vehicles will dominate not only public transport, but also the private sector. Vehicle fleets, in the form of car-sharing services, will be the norm. Cars, trucks and delivery vehicles will be autonomous electric vehicles that communicate with one another to optimize traffic flow and ensure safety. These vehicles will be intelligently controlled by infrastructure, allowing them to communicate with the power grid and feed energy back when needed – a concept of bidirectional charging stations.
Aviation will also take a significant step forward: airplanes will now be electric or be powered by synthetic jet fuel derived from green hydrogen. This will allow for sustainable long-distance travel. Drones and flying taxis will complement urban transport by covering short distances swiftly and emissions-free, operating quietly and unobtrusively within cities.
Additionally, innovative solutions for freight transportation will be developed. E-cargo planes and autonomous freight vehicles will rely on the green power grid to transport goods efficiently and emissions-free. The entire supply chain will be interconnected to ensure minimal energy consumption and maximum flexibility.
Therefore, the Swiss Museum of Transport in Lucerne addresses in its new exhibition the following vision: By 2050, expect all transportation modes to be interconnected, creating a global, sustainable network that not only reduces CO2 emissions, but also improves the quality of life for people. The pioneering spirit of the past will live on, shaping a future where mobility and transportation are efficient, sustainable and intelligent.
Beyond 2030: yesterday’s dreams, today’s realities
When we think about the future, it is easy to imagine a world shaped by advancements in technology, shifts in culture and unexpected challenges. But how do we envision futures that are not only possible but also desirable? This is where normative scenarios come into play. Unlike speculative or exploratory scenarios, which explore a range of possible futures, normative scenarios focus on desired futures – outcomes that align with certain values, goals or societal visions. By creating normative scenarios, we can better understand what steps are needed to guide today’s choices toward a future that reflects our best aspirations.
To bring this concept to life and to conclude this WIPO Technology Trends report on the Future of Transportation, we will explore three short stories. Each story is a piece of design fiction depicting a unique normative scenario
Urban cityscape “Dreams in the skyline” – imagine a future sustainable city where autonomous vehicles, green spaces and clean energy have transformed urban life. In this future, smart transportation systems make cities livable, eco-friendly and deeply interconnected (Figure 6.3).
Autonomous smart ports “The changing tides” – picture a fully-automated, green port that operates without human intervention, seamlessly balancing efficient global trade with environmental stewardship (Figure 6.4).
Seamless hypersonic air travel “From layovers to liftoff” – envision a world where hypersonic, environmentally-friendly travel connects families across continents, making international air travel easy, enjoyable and sustainable (Figure 6.5).
Each story highlights a unique use case, illustrating how technology, values and thoughtful planning could shape a future aligned with societal goals for sustainability, connectivity and well-being.
As they stood together on the path, the hum of a distant drone filled the air, blending with the leaves rustling in the breeze. Emma pointed toward the cityscape towering in the distance, her finger tracing the sleek lines of a flying taxi as it glided past the illuminated skyscrapers.
“Grandpa, look! Is that what you were telling me about?” she asked excitedly.
Grandpa Jack’s eyes followed the direction of her gaze. “Yes, that’s one of them alright. Those flying cars were once a distant dream, when I was young like you; something you’d see in movies or read about in science fiction books. I remember when companies were just starting to test them. They didn’t look nearly as elegant as they do now. And people weren’t sure if they’d ever be safe enough to use.”
He motioned toward the self-driving car parked beside them, its wheels glowing softly as though waiting patiently for their next command. “Back in 2025, most cars still needed a driver. And even the self-driving ones weren’t completely autonomous.
They had a hard time handling busy city traffic or unusual weather. Now, these cars navigate better than we ever could have done ourselves.”
Emma looked back at her grandfather, her face a mix of curiosity and admiration. “And the city? Did it always look this way?”
He shook his head. “No, not at all. It was just beginning to change back then. The idea of sustainable urban areas was popular, but most cities were still full of congested streets and old infrastructure. The push for greener spaces and energy- efficient buildings was there, but it was slow going, like me!”
He sighed, then added, “It’s amazing how much has changed in just a few, short decades. We dreamed of a future back then where technology could make life better without harming the planet. Standing here today, seeing you grow up in a world where those dreams are a reality… it makes me feel like we did something right.”
Emma gave his hand a little squeeze. “You did right, Grandpa. You helped imagine this world. And now, I get to live in it!”
As they continued to watch the city breathe life – flying taxis zipping across the skyline, drones delivering packages, while people at leisure strolled through lush parks that seemed as though woven into the urban fabric – Grandpa Jack couldn’t help but feel a sense of pride and hope. The world that he could once only imagine was now there in front of him, and he smiled at the thought that Emma would grow up knowing that this was her world, and the only world she had ever known.
Source: Image generated using OpenAI.
The sun was setting as Grandpa Jun and his grandson Hàoyǔ stood by the river quietly watching the port below in motion. Ships glided into dock on their own, as cranes turned to greet them before seamlessly unloading neatly stacked containers in readiness to be collected by a fleet of automated guided vehicles and carried onward to their destination inland. There wasn’t a human anywhere to be seen.
To Hàoyǔ, this was just how ports are.
Grandpa Jun, however, couldn’t take his eyes off the scene. “Do you know, when I was young, ports were noisy places crowded with people. Ships ran on diesel, and we had to haul everything by hand,” he said, shaking his head ruefully.
Hàoyǔ shrugged, while watching yet another ship dock itself perfectly. “Really? Why didn’t they just use AI?,” he asked disbelievingly.
Grandpa chuckled. “We didn’t have that kind of smart technology just yet. Ships ran on fossil fuel, not solar or hydrogen. And they certainly didn’t navigate themselves!”
Hàoyǔ pointed to a small drone skimming over the water. “What’s it doing, Grandpa?,” he asked, intrigued.
“That’s a cleanup drone. It removes plastic and keeps the water clear. And if there’s any pollution, it cleans that up too,” Grandpa Jun explained. “Back then, ports didn’t worry much about the ocean. They just focused on moving cargo.”
Hàoyǔ nodded, watching as another drone zipped by overhead. “So, no one had electric trucks either?”
“Not like these,” Grandpa said, watching the trucks move quietly between the containers.
“Everything was loud, smelly, and people had to drive the trucks themselves. But nowadays this port runs on renewable energy and practically takes care of itself.”
Hàoyǔ looked at the port, unimpressed at what he had heard. “So, it was really different back then?”
Grandpa Jun smiled. “Aye. It was nothing like this – no AI, no eco-friendly ships, no cleanup drones. Watching this… it’s like a dream come true.”
Hàoyǔ just shrugged. “Well, it seems normal to me.”
With a grin, Grandpa ruffled his grandson’s hair. “It is, my dear Hàoyǔ. And that’s what’s so wonderful about it.”
Source: Image generated using OpenAI.
Anna and Leo were bouncing with excitement as they waited at the airport in Sydney. Their grandma was coming all the way from London. And thanks to the revolutionary hypersonic aircraft, she would be there in under two hours.
As soon as they saw the sleek, silver vehicle, they ran to greet her as she stepped out, each grabbing one of her hands.
“Grandma!” they shouted in unison: “How was your flight?”
Grandma laughed, hugging them both to her tightly. “Oh, it was incredible! You know, when I was younger, traveling halfway across the world was a completely different experience. It was never so quick and easy as it is now.”
The three of them walked over to sit on a cozy bench in the terminal’s quiet garden area, surrounded by greenery and soft, ambient lighting. Grandma looked around at the bright modern facility, with its futuristic design and serene atmosphere. “I can hardly believe it myself,” she said, shaking her head.
Anna’s eyes widened. “What was it like back then, Grandma?”, she asked.
“Well,” Grandma began, settling into her seat, “traveling from London to Sydney used to take more than 20 hours! We’d have to navigate huge, crowded airports and wait in endless security lines, and endure long-haul flights with cramped seats and noisy engines. It was exhausting and felt like an eternity.”
Leo wrinkled his nose. “That sounds awful!”
Grandma chuckled. “It wasn’t all bad. But it was certainly tiring. And it wasn’t great for the planet either. Those planes burned so much fuel, creating a lot of pollution. Now, thanks to hypersonic air travel, the whole journey is incredibly fast and eco-friendly.”
She glanced over at the sleek aircraft resting nearby, its gleaming surface reflecting the soft light of the terminal. “These hypersonic vehicles use advanced propulsion systems that rely on sustainable fuels, you know. They fly at high altitude, reaching speeds exceeding Mach 5 and offering stunning views of Earth’s curvature, before descending gently to land at their destination.”
Anna pointed at the hypersonic airplane in awe. “And it only takes two hours, right?”
“Exactly,” Grandma said, her face lighting up. “I boarded in London, and before I had time to watch a whole in-flight movie, here I was in Sydney. No layovers and a breathtaking view of the planet along the way. It’s like stepping into the future.”
Leo grinned. “So that means you can visit us more often now?”
Grandma squeezed his hand. “Absolutely! I can come and see you whenever I like. These hypersonic flights have made the world feel so much smaller. Back in 2025, a trip like this was a grueling ordeal. But now, it’s almost as easy as hopping on a train!”
Anna leaned against her grandma, beaming. “We’re so happy you’re here, Grandma.”
Grandma smiled. “I am too, my loves. I never thought I’d see the day when I could travel from London to Sydney and feel like I’d barely left home. It’s amazing how much travel has changed for the better.”
Leaving the terminal together, Grandma couldn’t stop marveling at the incredible world her grandchildren were growing up into – a world where even traveling between cities so far apart as London and Sydney felt like nothing at all.
Source: Image generated using OpenAI.