4 Exploring transport modalities

An unmanned vehicle certified with the right level of software and the right infrastructure around it is absolutely safer than a manned vehicle – provided that every vehicle on the road or every vehicle that is able to interact with that vehicle is also unmanned. As soon as you've got other drivers on the road who are humans, you have huge problems.

We are going to see more intelligence and autonomy appearing in cars. It makes driving far safer and far more relaxing but true, wide scale autonomy, is some way off and will require the majority of vehicles to be autonomously capable and, even when we get to that stage, you're going to have a driver sitting in there who will have to take responsibility for that vehicle, unless you're in a dedicated lane or you're in a dedicated area where everyone knows the vehicles are all autonomous and there's probably no driverless vehicles around, say for instance, a university campus or an airport.

Different business models are appearing across the world. An interesting business model in Taiwan for recharging batteries is pavement kiosks – you pull out the batteries from your scooter and replace them with fully charged batteries from the kiosk, while your dead batteries go into the kiosk for recharging. This has created an influential monopoly and now even established scooter and motorbike manufacturers are conforming to this standard. If you live in a very urbanized place like Taiwan, you don't have on-street parking and don't have to have a garage where you can plug in. A lot of people are using scooters and this business model allows you to recharge them very, very quickly. Meanwhile there’s a boom going on in electric three-wheelers in the Philippines, and electric motorbike-taxis in Kenya. I've always thought keeping an eye on what emerging economies are doing is very important, and not solely focusing on what's happening in the West.

Hydrogen as a fuel is likely to be a better option for heavy-duty, long-haul vehicles rather than for personal vehicles that would require a much larger buildout of infrastructure. Long-haul trucks tend to move along certain transit corridors, which presents an opportunity to install hydrogen fuel at select locations for maximum impact and effect. This stands in stark contrast to consumer vehicle hydrogen use, which might very well require the installation of hydrogen fuel at virtually every gasoline station in the world.

Businesses and organizations are realizing they can self-generate power and utilize it instead of being reliant on fossil fuel. In South Africa, in particular, given frequent power outages, businesses have taken it upon themselves to approach the private sector to build energy resilience. This has led to a much faster adoption of renewables, primarily solar, both in private homes and commercial businesses. However, there has not been a comparable investment in energy storage, meaning there is an oversupply of solar-generated power. What we're seeing is that many businesses are evaluating electric vehicles (EVs) as a means of utilizing the excess energy instead of wasting it.

Zimi provides charging infrastructure – both the physical hardware and the related software and analytics platform required to manage the EVs that use the charging points. The chargers can be small enough to be wall-mounted to something like the size of your regular petrol pump; or much larger ones for charging trucks or fleets of vehicles, with a mix of personal, private chargers and shared public chargers.

That is today. In the future, battery energy densities will increase, vehicles ranges will increase and the charging capacities of chargers will also increase from kilowatts to megawatts. I foresee all this becoming a game-changer in how people start thinking about the energy part of the equation when they are using their vehicles.

We are also seeing rapid development of robotic charging. An autonomous vehicle could drive itself to a charger and a robot could charge it. This could also be really helpful when you have big, heavy cables for high-powered charging.

All these developments are really promising, but what keeps me up at night is energy availability. That is, making sure the infrastructure is managed properly, is reliable and that there is enough power to charge vehicles. Another thing that keeps me up is a bad actor; for example, an AI-based system implemented without thorough checks and balances in place, resulting in grid outages.

I also see EVs as an exciting future for South Africa. Africa is a rapidly growing, rapidly urbanizing continent. It has fast income growth and industrialization potential. Similar to mobile technology which leapfrogged developmental steps a few years ago, I see the same trend happening for EVs and energy in Africa.

People have been trying to make electric vehicles mainstream for more than a century. The reason they failed was because the battery technology was not there. The batteries that were available were big and heavy. And even if electric cars had taken off a century ago, they would still have been charged using coal-fired power stations. So, we’d still have had an emissions problem.

It’s not just the improvement in battery technology that makes electric vehicles a better option today – it’s also the fact that we can charge them using electricity from renewable sources.

As we move away from the internal combustion engine and toward electric vehicles, I see a whole new ecosystem of “always on, always traveling” autonomous vehicles.

So you go from a people-driven world, in which people need to eat or sleep, to a world that is constantly on 24/7, 365 days a year.

In the UIC Security Department we deal mainly with the threats to the system and, when we talk about the evolution of transportation trends, we try to think more of how the threats will evolve. With increasing digitalization and interconnectivity, threats are increasing: from petty crimes and daily incivilities to more serious forms of attack. There is now a lot of work going on in this area.

Apart from the technical side of things, there is also the human factor. We strongly believe that the human factor can be the weakest point in the security chain. But it could also be the strongest point or the biggest asset, if properly informed and trained. It is a sensitive area but work around it is growing exponentially. Safety and security have now become part of the design process, so we cannot imagine developing a new system without including security from the outset.

If a station is designed in 2025, it will include different security features: AI-based intelligent cameras with automated alerts, ballistic protective materials, open spaces etc. In the future, I think we are heading toward a world in which you are able to do security more effectively and still in a seamless way.

However, threats are also evolving much faster today and becoming less predictable. We rarely see the types of attack today unlike the ones 20 years ago. Not only are there physical threats, but also digital attacks or a combination of the two.

There is also more work being undertaken on identifying and defining how to make rail transportation more inclusive and on identifying who is vulnerable. Inclusivity is equally critical. UIC is advancing initiatives to accommodate vulnerable passengers, including persons with disabilities, women, children, and those unfamiliar with local transport systems. By prioritizing accessibility and personalization, UIC aims to make rail transport truly universal. In our past research we realized that vulnerability affects not only traditional groups like women and children, but that anyone can become vulnerable, depending upon the situation. For example, you can be vulnerable, when you are a tourist in a city new to you and don’t speak the local language and cannot understand public announcements made in a station during an incident.

In the future, I see humans as the key factor that will transform rail transport. Today, cross-sector cooperation exists but is still rather limited. The transformation of the rail sector depends on interdisciplinary collaboration. UIC fosters partnerships between engineers, urban planners, digital innovators, and social scientists to address complex challenges holistically. By bringing together diverse expertise, UIC supports the development of a global rail system that is not only innovative but also balanced, inclusive, and sustainable.

Although the maritime industry is slow to catch up and to evolve, I see huge potential in unmanned shipping; in particular, maritime autonomous surface shipping for cargo. With no pilot and only a skeleton crew necessary to make sure all systems are working correctly, the cost savings will be huge. It will be slow to take off, because the cost of replacing a working oil tanker or cargo vessel is huge, and there is already a lot of them currently in service.

The maritime sector is a vital component of the global economy, responsible for transporting over 80% of global trade by volume. However, despite being one of the least carbon-intensive transport modes, the sector still contributes significantly to global emissions because of its sheer volume of activity. The urgent need to decarbonize this sector cannot be overstated, because the vessels deployed within the next few years will largely shape what will be the fleet and fuel mix two-to-three decades from now. And the maritime sector will undoubtedly play a role in enabling the decarbonization of other transport and industrial sectors, transporting the fuels and feedstocks of the future.

Full decarbonization will require the maritime sector to move away from its fossil fuel reliance. To achieve this, a combination of different solutions or pathways will need to be employed, all of which have innovation as a common denominator. The first pathway is increased efficiency, in the form of technology and operational improvements. Efficiency improvements are the best way to deliver emission reductions in the short-term and keep a timely decarbonization within reach through reducing the energy intensity of the sector.

The second pathway is direct electrification, which is particularly relevant for decarbonizing short and inland routes, as well as operations at port. The provision of onshore power in ports and harbors can deliver substantial emission reductions, given that some shipping segments spend considerable time in port, usually burning fossil fuels. Beyond this, if the meteoric rate of improvement in battery technologies continues, the electrification of longer shipping routes could become a reality, at least partially through battery-hybrid ships.

The third pathway is the use of sustainable biofuels, such as renewable diesel, bio- LNG and bio-methanol. Biofuels are a key decarbonization option for the sector, not only as a fuel but potentially as a source of biogenic carbon for e-fuel production.

Biofuels boast high technological readiness, allowing them to be immediately harnessed as blends or drop-in fuels, requiring little to no change in terms of operation and infrastructure, and offering the potential for emission reductions in the short-to-medium term. However, the rapid scale-up of sustainable biofuels will require strict controls along the entire supply chain, robust standards and certification mechanisms, and substantial policy intervention to guarantee sustainability.

The fourth pathway – relevant for the medium-to-long term – is the use of e-fuels made from green hydrogen, such as e-methanol and e-ammonia. E-fuels can be produced using renewable power and have the advantage that, on paper, they could satisfy virtually unlimited demand. However, they also come with limitations, such as the potential of e-methanol being limited by the need to source carbon sustainably (from the atmosphere or from biogenic sources) to synthesize it, and the use of ammonia as a fuel presenting operational and safety concerns.

The last pathway could be the use of carbon capture technologies. The maritime industry is increasingly looking at the possibility of implementing onboard carbon capture systems. This could prevent emissions from biofuels or e-fuels reaching the atmosphere and solve the sustainable carbon sourcing issue. However, there are a number of challenges that would need to be solved before this becomes a reality, starting with the logistical aspects of handling captured carbon from potentially thousands of vessels docked at ports.

In addition, digital technologies will necessarily play a supporting role in the success of all these pathways. Digitalization will be critical for tracking the progress of the transition and the impacts of mitigation measures. The data collected through the digitalization of ships and smart ports will be crucial to unlocking efficiency improvements in technologies, through data-driven improved designs, and in operations, through optimized or even automatized operations.

Ultimately, the decarbonization of the maritime sector is a complex challenge, but one that I believe is achievable. A combination of solutions, including increased efficiency and the adoption of renewable-based technologies, such as electrification and renewable fuel alternatives, supported by digitalization, will be needed. We have all the pieces of the puzzle laid out before us. Now the task is to fit them all together with the help of ambitious policies and standards coupled with decisive action.

The sea transport industry is essential to global trade and supply chains, with more than 80% of cargo transported by sea. As one of the busiest hub ports in the world, the Port of Singapore is connected to some 600 ports around the globe. The major drivers shaping our priorities include global shipping trends, human capital and resources, environmental regulations, technology and digitalization.

Geopolitics and strained supply chains have had and will continue to have a major impact on global shipping, and the competitiveness of hub ports will largely be determined by their ability to efficiently and reliably handle the needs of mega vessels and shipping alliances. The pace at which hub ports digitalize, automate, decarbonize, and equip their workforce to be future-ready will also play a part.

At the same time, environmental regulations by governments will be a key enabler to accelerate global decarbonization efforts. The International Maritime Organization has set a target for international shipping to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by or around 2050 ⁽⁴⁾The 80th session of the IMO MEPC meeting concluded in July (2023), with all member states agreeing to reduce GHG emissions from international shipping as soon as possible and to reach net-zero GHG emissions by or around 2050. , and the mid-term measures to reduce GHG emissions from shipping are scheduled to be approved at the IMO’s 83rd Marine Environment Protect Committee in April 2025.

The maritime industry is also undergoing a digital revolution, with Industry 4.0 technologies transforming and disrupting many industries. Digital solutions and cybersecurity are key enablers for the maritime industry, with increasing use being made of big data, artificial intelligence, remote technologies, robotics and Internet-of-Things to improve supply chain efficiency and reduce energy consumption, transaction cost and time.

In response to these challenges and opportunities, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) has taken key steps to remain efficient and future-ready. These include developing the Next Generation Port at Tuas, which will have a handling capacity of 65 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) when fully operational in the 2040s. The MPA is also investing in digitalization and cybersecurity, and has set up a Maritime Cybersecurity Assurance and Operations Centre (MCAOC) to provide real-time security monitoring and disseminate information to mitigate cyber threats, as well as the DigitalPORT@SG platform to digitalize port services and regulatory processes.

The MPA is also collaborating with international partners to pursue decarbonization efforts, and aims to provide zero/low carbon marine fuel and bunkering infrastructure to accelerate the adoption of global standards and solutions. Domestically, the port and harbor craft sector will need to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 to support the new national climate target.

A focus on innovation and R&D are remain key priorities, with the MPA supporting numerous R&D projects and training research scientists and engineers. The MPA, together with NUS Enterprise, launched the PIER71 initiative in 2018 to attract global startups and entrepreneurs into the maritime industry and support over 140 marinetech startups.

The sea transport industry, particularly in Singapore, is going through a phase of significant evolution and change. The industry can expect new areas for development and investment, along with the creation of new jobs and future skills with the digital and green transition. These developments will create opportunities to transform how we work and function, to ensure we remain efficient and build the maritime workforce of the future.

The biggest revolution happening in transportation is around energy.

There is a cargo ship that uses wind power to sail across oceans, like the big sailing ships of yesteryear. And that revolution is looking backward. This wind-powered ship just made its first delivery across the Atlantic. ⁽⁵⁾See, Fast Company (2024), The world’s largest wind-powered cargo ship just made its first delivery across the Atlantic. Available at: www.fastcompany.com/91185144/the-worlds-largest-wind-powered-cargo-ship-just-made-its-first-delivery-across-the-atlantic.

Electric boats are something to watch out for in the future. There is a company (Candela) that makes them now. They are hydrofoil boats and they're incredibly fast and incredibly energy efficient, because they basically lift the whole boat out of the water. You could imagine this being an amazing transformative technology in places where waterways are the easiest way to get around.

Profound changes in technology will lead to fundamental changes in the transportation industry. These changes can be in different areas. A fundamental revision in transport regulation and a fundamental redefinition of the fields of safety, the use of clean fuel, and a drastic reduction of the carbon footprint in the transport industry will be different aspects of the change to come in the future of transport.

Although in the Middle East various aspects of transportation have been associated with technological changes, a change in transportation regulation has resulted in the area of transportation management having been given more attention than other aspects. A financial and economic crisis in the region has raised many barriers to the introduction of modern technologies, as well as fleet modernization. In addition to this issue, government subsidies and very cheap fuel prices have caused transportation efficiency to be low, and there is no clear pathway toward changing this situation and increasing efficiency.

The issue of smart logistics has been given serious attention by the private sector and goods producers. In recent years, the passenger transportation sector has undergone fundamental changes, with the creation of transport management platforms; and, currently, major platforms have taken over the vast bulk of passenger transportation.

Similarly, despite the existence of many obstacles in the field of regulation and technology, progress has been made within the cargo transportation sector. Although the initial process of change is at the early stages, the future will belong to smart logistics. And it seems that the resistance of the traditional sector of the industry to the wave of changes taking place is fragile; and in the future, most of the cargo transportation industry in the region will use modern technologies. The use of artificial intelligence is on the path of change and this will lead to an increase in the efficiency of cargo transportation in the region. Considering the increase in fuel consumption within the region’s transportation sector, coupled with an increase in the cost of fuel subsidies for governments in the Middle East, governments are expected to play a role as the main regulator of the transportation industry in the region supporting these changes.

This will be the basis for future changes. And, looking ahead, we could see more changes in various sectors such as the development of self-driving cars, alternative and clean fuels, as well as new regulations regarding the use of blockchain technology in the field of transportation.

I believe there has been a recent step change in transportation in the Middle East and we can be optimistic about the fundamental changes in the future of transportation in region. From my field observations, I foresee the emergence of smart logistics companies and the use of AI in cargo transportation platforms playing a role as the engine driving change in other areas of transportation.

When States delegates convened in Chicago in 1944 to conceive the Convention on International Civil Aviation, which remains the legal foundation for the vast air transportation industry, they could hardly have imagined how thoroughly air transport would become embedded in global society. Their aspirational preamble about aviation fostering prosperity and "friendship and understanding among nations" now seems prescient: air transport has become a critical, unique, and irreplaceable catalyst for development and peace worldwide.

Meanwhile, the eight decades of evolution since demonstrate the profound relationship between air transport and technological advancement. It is a dynamic that is accelerating at an unprecedented pace, becoming exponentially evermore sophisticated, and important. Since its creation by the Convention, the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) role has therefore also evolved in tandem.

Aviation is a technology-intensive industry that demands a careful balance between innovation and the status quo. Jeopardizing the highest safety standards that have characterized civil aviation's development would threaten the future of aviation itself. As a result, ICAO is now helping its Member States elaborate regulatory frameworks that actually encourage even the most disruptive innovations while safeguarding lives and livelihoods.

This is happening today. The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI), automation, and advanced materials, for example, is reshaping the industry's fundamentals. AI and machine learning are already operational necessities, deployed in everything from predictive maintenance to flight path optimization. Advanced analytics now power everything from passenger flow management to aircraft component lifecycle prediction, while automated systems increasingly handle complex operational decisions that once required human intervention. Weather analysis has become granular enough to trim both fuel costs and the effects of turbulence.

These are just some illustrations of how technologies are fundamentally altering how aviation works, and we are just at the dawn of this new era. At the macro level, technological advancement will serve as a key enabler for achieving greater sustainability, efficiency, and economic viability across the aviation ecosystem.

Modern aircraft surveillance illustrates this complexity perfectly: space-based Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast/Contract (ADS-B/C) systems now complement traditional radar and airborne surveillance, demonstrating how space, air, and ground technologies can work in synergy despite their distinct regulatory frameworks. This integration hints at a future where transport modes become increasingly interconnected, demanding innovative applications of technology toward common objectives.

Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic, for all its devastation, provided almost a “reset” moment for aviation that triggered an accelerated digital transformation. At ICAO, digitalization was implemented to assure the operation of tasks as widely varied as the new Public Health Corridors created to the environmental certification that remains at the heart of our response to the climate crisis. This catalyzed wider innovations, from digital identity verification to enhanced cargo tracking systems.

Digitalization will also be key to assuring the success of the most visible revolution in air transport, which is occurring in urban airspace. Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles are moving from concept to reality, bringing with them sophisticated autonomous systems and dedicated air corridors. These developments incorporate fuel-flexible propulsion systems and embrace the principles of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) initiatives. These systems incorporate advanced sensing technologies, real-time communication networks, and artificial intelligence to maintain separation between aircraft while optimizing airspace usage.

Of course, medium and long-haul flights are transforming too. New technologies addressing fuel efficiency and sonic boom are expected to facilitate a sustainable reintroduction of supersonic flight, and we also see innovative propulsion systems and aerodynamic designs holding the promise of hypersonic capabilities revolutionizing long-distance travel.

New business models are emerging to capitalize on this connectivity. Success however will require unprecedented collaboration between established players, startups, regulators, and researchers, and this is where ICAO plays a unique and powerful role as a platform for collaboration. These advances promise to unlock new industries and high-skilled employment opportunities across both developed and developing States, helping to address global economic imbalances through expanded aviation capabilities and expertise.

All of this is taking place against the backdrop of the sustainability imperative, encompassing its environmental and socio-economic dimensions, which presents aviation's greatest challenge. Air connectivity underpins all modern societies, but it is a particularly vital humanitarian and economic lifeline for least developed countries (LDCs), small island developing States (SIDS), and landlocked developing countries (LLDCs). The fact that growth in air connectivity is forecast to take place precisely where it is needed most points to the critical importance of safeguarding this expansion by ensuring aviation responds effectively to the climate crisis.

States working through ICAO have agreed to a net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050, supported by a Global Framework for Sustainable Aviation Fuels, Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels, and other cleaner energy solutions. ⁽⁷⁾ICAO (2022). States adopt net-zero 2050 global aspirational goal for international flight operations. Available at: www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/States-adopts-netzero-2050-aspirational-goal-for-international-flight-operations.aspx. Member States are striving to achieve a collective global aspirational Vision to reduce CO₂ emissions in international aviation by 5% by 2030, compared to zero cleaner energy use. ⁽⁸⁾ICAO (2023). ICAO Special Environment Report on Aviation Cleaner Energy Transition. Available at: www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Documents/ICAO%20Special%20Environment%20Report%20on%20International%20Aviation%20Cleaner%20Energy%20Transition%20.pdf. The industry is pursuing this transformation through multiple complementary paths - hybrid-electric propulsion, hydrogen power, fuel-flexible systems, and operational efficiencies - ensuring no viable solution is left unexplored.

Technologies are being developed alongside advanced materials and manufacturing processes to reduce aircraft weight and improve aerodynamic performance. Patents provide the necessary framework for securing these investments, while international cooperation ensures that technological advances benefit the entire aviation community. Yet success requires political commitment, infrastructure investment, and financial incentives that align commercial interests with environmental goals. Joining these goals and the leaders who can back them is another current focus of ICAO’s work.

To navigate this complex future landscape, ICAO is also institutionalizing foresight analysis and horizon scanning disciplines. These systematic approaches enable better situational awareness of future scenarios and facilitate participatory analysis for decision-making about innovations. The organization will further employ advanced modeling techniques, scenario planning tools, and collaborative frameworks to anticipate and prepare for emerging challenges. These methodologies incorporate input from diverse stakeholders, ensuring that future developments consider technical, operational, and regulatory perspectives.

International civil aviation's strength lies in its operation as a unified global system, where each State's participation strengthens the whole. Through ICAO's Strategic Plan 2026-2050, the international aviation community has crafted a vision that balances ambition with pragmatism, innovation with safety, and global progress with local needs. ⁽⁹⁾ICAO Strategic Plan 2026-2050. Safe Skies, Sustainable Future. Available at: https://www.icao.int/about-icao/Council/Pages/strategic-plan-2026-2050.aspx. Taken with the UN agency’s “no country left behind” strategic goal which is building capacity worldwide, the plan's implementation will showcase how coordinated international action can transform visionary goals into operational reality.

Innovative aerial services (IAS) refers to “new urban/metropolitan/regional traffic,” whether purely for mobility (of people and goods) or for city (metropolitan and regional) public services and operations (for example, security, law enforcement, surveillance of critical infrastructure, environmental monitoring), and has the potential to improve city operations and services.

Urban air mobility (UAM) is a key component of IAS, utilizing drones and electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles to transform urban transport.

Advancements in autonomous navigation, battery technology, hydrogen energy technologies, and data-driven flight and fleet management are driving the growth of IAS. However, the integration of IAS into existing transportation systems remains a challenge. To address this, a shared digital infrastructure enabling secure and interoperable data exchange is needed. Urban planners and policymakers are beginning to include urban air mobility in sustainable urban mobility plans, recognizing the need for an integrated transport network connecting air and ground transportation.

The integration of urban air mobility into existing intelligent transport systems and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) systems is essential for coordinating traffic flows, managing real-time navigation data, and ensuring safety across different mobility modes. This requires a coordinated approach with Connected, Cooperative and Automated Mobility (CCAM) solutions. The aviation, automotive, railway, and wider mobility sectors must collaborate closely to establish standards for data exchange, digital infrastructure, and safety and security protocols. Real-time communication between eVTOLs and ground-based autonomous vehicles will be crucial for smooth transfers and the efficient use of shared infrastructure. By creating a holistic mobility ecosystem, cities and regions can unlock the full potential of UAM and ground-based mobility solutions, fostering greater efficiency, safety and service convenience.

Despite the promising outlook of IAS, deployment faces several challenges. One primary issue involves multi-level governance and regulatory coordination. Effective IAS deployment requires aligning city-level policies with national and international aviation frameworks, as well as cross-sectoral systems interoperability. Safe and efficient IAS operations require integration into airspace operations and the international harmonization of regulations and relevant standards. Fragmented regulations and inconsistent safety and security standards can hinder technological progress and erode public trust.

Another critical challenge lies in developing the necessary physical and digital infrastructure. Establishing vertiports and vertipads, managing low-level airspace IAS traffic, and integrating urban air traffic management and communication systems with ground-based intelligent transport systems and CCAM networks requires substantial investment. Ensuring consistent data standards, safety and security protocols is crucial for reliable, safe and secure mobility services.

On the societal front, engaging a wide range of stakeholders is essential for the responsible deployment of IAS. This involves addressing environmental, security and noise concerns, and ensuring societal embracement through transparent stakeholder engagement and real-world testing in living labs settings. Societal embracement entails a positive impact for society as a whole and is nurtured through transparent stakeholder engagement and real-world testing in living labs settings.

To realize the full potential of UAM, stakeholders in both the aviation and ground mobility sectors must work together to build an integrated, interoperable and efficient mobility ecosystem. This involves aligning standards, investing in shared infrastructure and embracing digital transformation. By overcoming challenges related to regulation, social acceptance and technology through a collaborative, cross-sectoral approach, cities and regions can unlock the opportunities presented by IAS.

Environmental sustainability is a core principle in the development and deployment of IAS. To genuinely contribute to environmental stewardship, IAS must incorporate sustainable development practices throughout its entire ecosystem. This includes adopting life-cycle assessment strategies that consider end-of-life reuse, sourcing and responsible production methods. By integrating zero-emission propulsion systems and prioritizing energy-efficient operations, IAS can contribute to an improved and sustainable transportation network in urban and regional environments.

Sustainable IAS extends beyond only environmental considerations. Collaborative, cross-sectoral initiatives are required to ensure sustainable development practices that nurture and safeguard its positive societal impact in alignment with the principles and best practices of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This includes addressing societal dimensions such as inclusivity, accessibility and equitable access to mobility services.

As urban centers evolve, so too must our approach to mobility and other city operations and services. With the right policies, technology and infrastructure, IAS can improve the way we live and move in populated areas, by creating smarter, safer, more secure and more sustainable cities for the future.

Airports today are shaped like a dumbbell. One end of the dumbbell is for ticketing and checked bags. The opposite end is where the gates are located, along with restaurants and shops. The thin middle between the two ends is for security screening, separating the “landside” of the airport from its “airside.”

This airport shape has become more pronounced in the last two decades, mainly because of enhanced security screening apparatus. ⁽¹²⁾US News (2021). An entire generation of Americans has no idea how easy air travel used to be. Available at:www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2021-09-08/an-entire-generation-of-americans-has-no-idea-how-easy-air-travel-used-to-be. But artificial intelligence is poised to subvert that shape: first by creating new ways for people to interact with existing airport infrastructure; then by challenging the traditional landside–airside barrier; and, finally, by enabling all-new design approaches to the physical and digital footprints of airports. Here’s how those changes will unfold.

Five years from now: early negotiations with infrastructure

Airports have historically told you what they are doing. A giant flight information display system or a series of gate announcements is the airport broadcasting its operations. What you are doing as a passenger is extracting relevant information and maneuvering those operations. This power dynamic between what an airport is doing and what a passenger is doing is changing and becoming far more collaborative. At Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA), for example, passengers can make “spot saver” appointments ⁽¹³⁾See www.portseattle.org/SEAspotsaver. for security screenings, skipping the lines; or passengers parking their vehicles can use an automated parking guidance system ⁽¹⁴⁾Port of Seattle. Automated parking guidance system. Available at: www.portseattle.org/projects/automated-parking-guidance-system. to find open spots faster. In each instance, the airport is improving its efficiency by allowing passengers to interact with infrastructure more directly.

Add five years to these types of innovations, and it’s easy to imagine even more personalized interactions with existing airport infrastructure: SEA's automated parking guidance system will integrate with passengers' AI-powered hearables and wearables for personalized voice-based interactions. Extending the same level of integration to airport partners, such as restaurateurs and ground transportation providers, will position the airport as a broker of services and enable passenger queries such as “What restaurants in concourse B have tables available right now?”

10 years from now: disrupting the landside/airside barrier

Artificial intelligence is at the heart of autonomous vehicles. Autonomous vehicles are also the single biggest future disruptor to contemporary airport operations, for two big reasons. First, they will erode parking–garage revenues, as these fleets begin conveying more and more passengers to the airport. Second, autonomous vehicles are secure and surveilled. Riders are authenticated as they access the vehicle and the vehicle itself is outfitted with cameras and microphones for monitoring and communicating with riders. Built-in characteristics such as these make autonomous vehicles a logical way for security screening to occur on the way to the airport. In other words, autonomous vehicles are next-generation, AI-powered security checkpoints.

Screening onboard autonomous vehicles presents some interesting operational possibilities for airports and airlines. If passengers are screened while they are heading to the airport, they will arrive on the airside of an airport since that’s the post-screening “secure” side. There are two potential airside destinations, and both could be used simultaneously. One is inside on the concourse or at the gates, the other is directly to the aircraft. Airport retailers and restaurateurs will be pleased by the former and distressed by the latter. With both, though, airports will have new opportunities to re-allocate space for different functions within their physical footprint.

20 years from now: big, fun airports and smaller intermodal airports

What does it look like when a future airport uses AI to manage its security screening and baggage handling offsite and transports passengers directly to aircraft? Existing airports will fill with fun those spaces previously devoted to lining up and waiting. That’s right: the permanent decline of business travel, ⁽¹⁵⁾Forbes (2023). Business travel will never bounce back to pre-pandemic levels, studies say. Available at: www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2023/04/24/business-travel-comeback/?sh=30f2206c44b2. the resilience of leisure travel, ⁽¹⁶⁾Marketplace (2023). Leisure travel is back: Business travel is not. Available at: www.marketplace.org/2023/04/25/leisure-travel-is-back-business-travel-is-not. and retailers and restaurateurs competing with direct-to-aircraft transportation in the future will put an emphasis on entertainment experiences. These big spaces will be filled with big things, and there are already precedents for where this is headed. Singapore’s Jewel Changi Airport features the world’s largest indoor waterfall and 240,000 square feet of indoor gardens. ⁽¹⁷⁾The Dirt (2019). Singapore’s new garden airport. Available at: https://dirt.asla.org/2019/04/08/singapores-new-garden-airport. Amsterdam Airport Schiphol offers free 24/7 access to Rijksmuseum Schiphol, ⁽¹⁸⁾Schiphol. An artistic start to your journey. Available at: www.schiphol.nl/en/at-schiphol/discover/facilities/rijksmuseum. a rotating exhibit from the Netherlands’ most famous museum. Munich Airport in Germany has hosted indoor surfing events ⁽¹⁹⁾Surfer (2015). Surf culture: Surfing in the Munich Airport. Available at: www.surfer.com/blogs/surfing-in-the-munich-airport. and high-ropes courses. ⁽²⁰⁾The Points Guy (2022). A new way to hang around between flights: Munich Airport's high-ropes course. Available at: https://thepointsguy.com/news/munich-airport-ropes-course.

Brand-new airports will focus on designing within a smaller physical footprint from the start. Combined with new forms of smaller and quieter aircraft, ⁽²¹⁾Tech Crunch (2023). Wisk Aero starts flight testing electric autonomous aircraft in Los Angeles. Available at: https://techcrunch.com/2023/10/06/wisk-aero-starts-flight-testing-electric-autonomous-aircraft-in-los-angeles. there will be opportunities to bring airports and urban cores closer together, which will better integrate commercial aviation into rail networks and city transit systems. Since AI will enable the remote operation of air traffic control systems, there will also be opportunities for “pop-up” airports ⁽²²⁾Dezeen (2022). Urban-Air Port designs "world's first urban airport" for flying cars and drones. Available at: www.dezeen.com/2022/04/20/air-one-urban-airport-electric-flying-cars-drones. that support population booms in places without traditional airports ⁽²³⁾FP (2023). Demography is destiny in Africa. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/26/demographics-africa-sub-sahara-population-boom-growth-aging-gender-inequality-climate-change. and flex to meet the ups and downs of seasonal demand or a special event.

Though it is not obvious now and won’t be obvious in retrospect, the diverse shapes and digital footprints of these future airports 20 years from now will have a shared origin in the expansion of AI technologies today.

The space transportation sector is rapidly evolving, driven by technological advancements that are making space activities more accessible, affordable and innovative. The rise of reusable launch vehicles pioneered by companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin and Rocket Lab are reducing the cost of launching payloads into orbit, by enabling multiple launches to be made from the same vehicle. This shift is opening the door to a wider range of activities in space, fostering growth within sectors such as satellite deployment, space exploration and research.

Another major advancement is the development of on-orbit servicing and refueling technologies. Companies like Northrop Grumman are creating solutions that enable satellites to be repaired, refueled or recycled while still in orbit. This technology extends the lifespan of satellites and reduces the need for frequent new launches, thus optimizing space operations. In addition, efforts in space mining and in situ resource utilization (ISRU) are progressing. Such technologies aim to extract resources from asteroids, the Moon and Mars, supporting sustainable space operations and future colonization. ISRU will allow for the extraction of essential resources like water and oxygen, reducing dependence on Earth-based supplies.

In terms of propulsion, electric and nuclear propulsion systems are under development, promising faster and more efficient travel within the solar system. Electric propulsion, such as ion thrusters, and nuclear thermal propulsion are expected to reduce travel time to destinations like Mars, enhancing exploration and enabling human settlement beyond Earth. Additionally, the growth of space activities is driving the need for space logistics and supply chains, which includes spaceports, refueling stations and manufacturing hubs. Companies are exploring ways to establish such infrastructure to support ongoing operations beyond Earth.

We are also seeing the demand for small satellite launches increase. The miniaturization of satellites and the growing need for global communication, Earth observation, and Internet of Things (IoT) networks are driving this demand. As a result, new small launch vehicles and ride-sharing opportunities have emerged, making it easier to deploy constellations of satellites.

Space tourism is an emerging industry, with companies like Virgin Galactic and SpaceX at the forefront. These companies are bringing space travel closer to private citizens through suborbital flights offering a brief experience of space. Future plans include even more ambitious endeavors such as orbital hotels and lunar flybys.

Lastly, I believe that hypersonic travel and point-to-point space transport could revolutionize global transportation. Hypersonic vehicles, capable of flying at speeds many times faster than the speed of sound, could drastically reduce travel time between distant locations on Earth. For example, such vehicles could enable intercontinental flights in under an hour, by briefly exiting the Earth's atmosphere before re-entering at high speed. This technology has the potential to transform industries that rely on rapid transportation such as logistics, military operations, high-priority business travel and emergency services. Hypersonic travel could establish a new paradigm for global connectivity, shrinking the world and enabling more seamless global interaction.

To ensure that these revolutionary space transportation innovations realize their full potential in global transportation, UN bodies such as the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) must continue to play a crucial role in setting global standards, prioritizing safety, and addressing emerging challenges. By fostering international cooperation and adaptable regulations, we can unlock the full potential of space innovations to transform global transportation and improve connectivity worldwide.